Q3) A specialized electronic store sells products ranging from laptops to digital cameras. One of their high selling products is 22mm lens for digital cameras. Demand for 22 mm lens in the last 7 years are as follows: Demand Year 2016 360 +10*last two digits of your student number 2017 280+10*last two digits of your student number 2018 300+10*last two digits of your student number 320+10*last two digits of your student number 2019 2020 340+10*last two digits of your student number The supply chain manager thinks that demand is stable over the years and is considering two methods to forecast the demand for 2021, i.e., (i) 2 years moving average and (ii) exponential smoothing with smoothing constant a=0.5 to forecast the demand. For exponential smoothing methods, assume that the forecast for 2016 is equal to the demand in 2016, i.e., F2016=360 +10*last two digits of your student number. a) Fill the demand table using the last two digits of your student number. For example, if your student number is EMBA 200012, last two digit is 12 and the demand for 2016 is D2016=360+10*12=480. (5 points) b) Create a forecast for 2019,2020 and 2021 using 2 years MA? (5 points) c) Create a forecast for 2019,2020 and 2021 using exponential smoothing with smoothing constant a=0.5? (5 points) d) Calculate the forecast errors, MAD, MAPE by these methods ( 2 years MA and exponential smoothing with a=0.5). Determine which method is more accurate. (10 Points) FORMULAE 1 year = 365 days; 1 year = 12 months; 1 month=4 weeks; 1 month=30 days; 1 week=7 days Forcasting Formulas Moving Average: Exponential Smoothing: E = De-Fi X=1t/ BIAS = Ft+1 = D. + (1 - a) EF=1 \Ecl MAD = Fe+1 = Dz+D2 +--+DA TI Eellor 21 MAPE = 100