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Qscere Inc. must decide whether to manufacture a product or buy it from Dr. Kurt. The profit depends on the demand for the product, which
Qscere Inc. must decide whether to manufacture a product or buy it from Dr. Kurt. The profit depends on the demand for the product, which depends on various factors like state of the economy, US Dollar, and the competitive forces. Management has categorized the uncertain conditions into three sates of nature Low, Medium, and High demand. The payoff matrix along with the associated probabilities for the 3 states of nature is shown below. Qscgre Inc. is contemplating carrying out market research of the product. Such an effort would cost $10,000. Previously similar efforts have yielded useful information and the credibility associated with similar efforts are summarized in the conditional probability matrix shown below. The market research yields two readings - Favorable and Unfavorable. 1. Determine the optimal decision under the following heuristic methods 1.1. Optimistic Criteria 1.2. Pessimistic Criteria 1.3. Hurwicz's Criteria using coefficient of optimism of 0.4 2. Determine Expected Value with perfect Information and Expected Value of perfect Information 3. Determine the optimal decision. What is Oscerp Inc. optimal decision strategy? Show the diagram of complete decision tree and the diagram of probability tree
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