Quantitative Methods

(b) The level of economic activity in a region has been recorded over a period of four years as presented below. Year Quarter Year Quarter 1 3 1 2 3 4 Activity Level 105 99 90 110 111 104 93 119 2 3 4 Activity Level 118 109 96 127 126 115 100 135 2 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 i. Construct a graph for the data. (3 marks) ii. Find a centered four-point moving average trend and place it on your graph. (6 marks) iii. Calculate the corresponding additive seasonal components. (4 marks) iv. Predict the level of activity for first quarter of year five. (2 marks) v. Would you have any reservations about using this model? (2 marks) [Total: 25 Marks]