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Quarterly demand figures for one of your products is given below: Period 1 23 4 5 6 7 60 00 8 9 10 11 12
Quarterly demand figures for one of your products is given below: Period 1 23 4 5 6 7 60 00 8 9 10 11 12 Qtr 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Year 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 Demand 720 967 1458 1030 828 1095 1784 1367 1121 1357 2374 1715 1. Calculate the four period moving average forecast for periods 9-12. 2. Following the guidelines for time-series forecasting methods in the book(eq 7.2), determine the deseasonalized demand for periods 3-10. 3. Given the deseasonalized demand for periods 3-10, determine the slope and intercept for periods 3-10 to generate a linear regression forecast for periods 1-12. 4. Given the linear regression forecast, determine the seasonal factors for each of the 12 quarters and the average seasonal factor for each quarter. 5. Given the linear regression forecast and average quarterly seasonal factors, determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for periods 9-12. 6. Evaluate the MAPE in each case of the two forecasts for periods 9-12. Which of the two forecasting methods do you prefer? Why?
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