Question
QUESTION 1 Any renewed US-China trade war will be perilous BY CLYDE RUSSELL, ASIA COMMODITIES COLUMNIST AT REUTERS PUBLISHED: 7 MAY 2020 AT 04:00 NEWSPAPER
QUESTION 1
Any renewed US-China trade war will be perilous
BY CLYDE RUSSELL, ASIA COMMODITIES COLUMNIST AT REUTERS PUBLISHED: 7 MAY
2020 AT 04:00 NEWSPAPER SECTION: NEWS
The rhetoric around the possible resumption of the United States-China trade war has
been ramped up by both sides in recent days, but this time around the risks seem to be far
greater for both countries, with the world economy as collateral damage.
US President Donald Trump has intensified threats of new tariffs to punish China as he
seeks a winning issue for his campaign for re-election in November, just as Beijing tries to
deflect growing criticism over its handling of the global pandemic caused by the new
coronavirus.
Mr Trump said on May 1 that increasing tariffs on China is "certainly an option" as part
of retaliatory measures for what his administration believes was Beijing's failure to contain the
spread of the virus beyond its origins in the central city of Wuhan in December.
Mr Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have gone as far as to suggest that
Beijing actually created the virus, although neither offered any evidence. Mr Pompeo managed
to contradict himself in the same television interview, saying he believed the coronavirus came
from a Chinese laboratory, but he also accepts the US intelligence agencies conclusion that it
was not man-made.
For its part, China, through its official Xinhua News Agency, has mocked the US
response to the coronavirus through a short Lego-like animation called "Once Upon a Virus."
China's ambassador to strong US ally Australia, Cheng Jingye, also threatened a boycott of
Australian goods after Canberra proposed an international investigation of the origins of the
virus and of China's early response.
While the exchange of threats and finger-pointing doesn't necessarily translate into
action, it does raise the risk that the trade truce between Washington and Beijing agreed in
January will unravel.
A further point to note is that so far, the deal struck in January is a dismal failure on
one of its major points, namely that Beijing would massively increase its purchases of US
energy in the form of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.The agreement called for
China's imports of U.S. energy to increase by US$52.4 billion over 2020 and 2021 from a
baseline of $9.1 billion in 2017.
DEARTH OF COMMODITY IMPORTS
China is not even remotely close to meeting this obligation, with no crude oil imported
in February, March and April, a mere two cargoes underway and due to arrive in May and a
further one booked to arrive in June, according to Refinitiv data.In LNG, three cargoes arrived
in April, the first since March 2019, and four are underway for arrival this month, but as yet
none have been booked for June.
One coal cargo was discharged in March, two vessels that arrived at Chinese ports in
April appear to still be waiting to unload and two ships are currently en route and expected to
arrive by the end of this month.
To put it perspective, at the current West Texas Intermediate of $21.79 (706 baht) a
barrel, China would get close to a billion barrels of crude for a $20 billion spend.
Spread over a year, it would mean China importing about 2.74 million barrels per day
(bpd) from the US -- more than a cargo every day -- or about 90% of total US exports last year.
Of course, this level of buying would no doubt boost the price of US crude, but that would
most likely make it uncompetitive against supplies from other producers.
Already, US crude will struggle against similar grades from countries such as Nigeria
and the United Arab Emirates, given the higher freight costs.
US LNG is also currently uncompetitive in Asia, as the spot price for cargoes delivered
to China set a fresh record low of $1.85 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), which is
cheaper than US natural gas futures, and that's before the cost of liquefaction and freight is
added.
It should be clear to Mr Trump and his administration that the trade deal agreed with
China is effectively dead, raising the question of what the US will act about it.
Under normal circumstances in the Trump administration, it would likely result in a
ramping up of the rhetoric followed by the imposition of new tariffs, just as Mr Trump has
threatened so far. But the coronavirus may alter the equation. When Mr Trump launched the
trade war in the middle of 2018, the US economy was strong and growing and China looked a
tad vulnerable.
The tables have now completely turned, with the US facing the worst downturn since
the Great Depression of the 1930s and China seemingly emerging from the coronavirus
battered but not too bad.
Can US businesses cope with paying even more tariffs, and how will Wall Street
equities react to a resumption of trade hostilities at a time of severe economic weakness?
Mr Trump will have to balance the likely fallout from a renewed trade war with the
potential benefit of having a ready-made enemy to blame for all his woes leading up to the
November vote. In the meantime, what does appear likely is that US commodity exports to
China will remain at subdued levels, as they struggle to compete and Beijing appears reluctant
to force their purchase. Reuters
Source: Bangkok Post
Amid the heat up of the US-China trade war, Asia could face both direct and indirect
impacts through China's supply chain and reducing global trade, should China and
global economies worsen. How could Asia circumvent US-China trade war?
QUESTION 2
please help me to design Logistics and Supply Chain Model using the following information:
Supply Chain Condition
1.Your Company is Exporter who want to deliver 5,000 kg of pineapple to India
2.Your Company is located in (Bangkok-Thailand)
3.Your "Possible" Supplier should be in (Bangkok-Thailand)
4.Please help me to calculate and show distance between
supplier - company -. (key player you want)- port -India
5.Packaging and Box for export
6.How to Export to India
(Transportation Modes and Destination Port)
and the reason why you selected this mode.
Thank you!
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