Question 1

Suppose your professor has told you that every time that there is a class session, there are two possible outcomes: (a) that you have to take a pop quiz and (b) that you don't have to take a pop quiz. You have no prior information about which outcome might be more likely, so you assume that they are equally likely. You update your beliefs based on your experience as in a belief learning model. Your alpha parameter is 1. Before you have any experience, you think that there is a 50% chance that you have to take a quiz in a given class meeting, but you don't really know how often the class will have quizzes.

On the first day of class, there is a quiz. What is your belief about the likelihood that there will be a quiz in the next class meeting?

Question 1 options:

	1/3
	1/2
	2/3
	1

Question 2

Refer back to question 1: Suppose now that there is a quiz on the second day as well. What is your belief about the likelihood that there will be a quiz on the third day?

Question 2 options:

	1/4
	1/2
	2/3
	3/4

Question 3

Suppose that U of A's softball team is playing Cal tomorrow. You and three friends are trying to predict who is going to win. You take turns sequentially guessing the winner out loud. Everyone prefers to guess correctly than incorrectly.

Each of has private information, which is independent for each individual, about who is likely to win, because you each know someone on U of A's team. Suppose that the U of A is thought to be the better team so that the prior likelihood of U of A winning is 60%. Suppose that each player's private information has a 2/3 chance of being correct.

You choose first. Your information tells you that U of A is likely to win. What is your belief about the probability that U of A will win the game?

Question 3 options:

	3/5
	2/3
	3/4
	4/5

Question 4

Refer back to Question 3. Suppose that you are the second person to announce your opinion. The person ahead of you has guessed that Cal will win based on her private information. Your private information tells you that U of A will win. What is your belief about the probability that U of A will win?

Question 4 options:

	3/5
	2/3
	3/4
	5/6

Question 5

Refer back to question 3. You are the third person to guess. The first two people have both predicted that U of A will win. Your information, however, tells you that Cal will win. What is your belief about the probability that U of A will win the game?

Question 5 options:

	1/2
	3/5
	2/3
	3/4

Question 6

Suppose that you have just moved to Tucson and you are trying to figure out the best way to get to campus each day. You can take Speedway or Broadway to get to campus Suppose that your decision of which road to take follows a reinforcement learning model with = 3. On your first day in town, you are equally likely to take each route.

Suppose that you take Speedway on the first day. You get to campus fast and receive a payoff of 2. What is the probability that you take Speedway the second day?

Question 6 options:

	1/2
	5/8
	2/3
	4/5

Question 7

Refer back to question 6. You already took Speedway on your first day in Tucson and got a payoff of 2. The next day you take Broadway and get a payoff of 5. What is the probability that you take Speedway on the third day?

Question 7 options:

	1/3
	4/11
	2/5
	5/13

Question 8

Which statement is true? Probability matching

Question 8 options:

	Goes away with experience
	Is an optimal decision rule
	Never happens
	Gets more common with experience

Question 9

Siegel and Goldstein found that paying people money when they make correct predictions and making them pay the experimenter money when they make an incorrect prediction

Question 9 options:

	Increases probability matching
	Decreases probability matching
	Does not affect probability weighting
	The effect is not known