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Question 10. You are the new risk analyst for Superior Funds and have been given the task to calculate the Value at Risk for the

Question 10. You are the new risk analyst for Superior Funds and have been given the task to calculate the Value at Risk for the fund Ace-Q. You choose to calculate the funds Expected return and standard deviation by using scenarios and probabilities instead of historical data. These are the four future states you have come up with and their corresponding returns and probabilities.

State

Probability of state

Expected return for different states

Excellent

10%

30%

Good

55%

13%

Poor

30%

-6%

Crash

5%

-30%

  1. What is the 5% Value-at-Risk using the following formula:

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