QUESTION #2 50 MARKS The fiscal year for government agencies start in April of each year. Tax offices are government agencies. The manager at the tax office in Linstead has documented the number of paying customers for the 12 month for the last fiscal year as follows. Meth Number of 150 May Pune 100 July 330 August 330 September 270 October | 210 November December 19 150 February 230 March the data a) Compute the 4 and 5 month moving average forecast for 7 marks b) Conduct an error analysis using Mean Absolute Deviation for the 4 and 5 month forecast in a) above 5 marks C) Compute the 3 month weighted moving average, given that the manager has allotted weights of 2, 3, 4 where the most recent data is given the highest weight 7 marks d) What is the MAD for the 3 month weighted moving average? S marks e) With exponential smoothing constants of a=0.2 and a = 0.4 compute both exponential smoothing forecast 10 marks f) Which exponential smoothing constant do you prefer, a 0.2 or a=0.4 and why using MAD as the deciding criteria 5 marks g) Of all the forecasting methods above fi.e 4 and 5 month moving average, 3 month weighted moving average. exponential smoothing a of 0-2 and a of 0.4) which method provides the best forecast and why 5 marks h) The Linstead tax office collects on average 53,500.00 from each paying customer. Using the preferred method, how much can the manager expect to collect in the first month of the new fiscal year 5 marks QUESTION #2 50 MARKS The fiscal year for government agencies start in April of each year. Tax offices are government agencies. The manager at the tax office in Linstead has documented the number of paying customers for the 12 month for the last fiscal year as follows. Meth Number of 150 May Pune 100 July 330 August 330 September 270 October | 210 November December 19 150 February 230 March the data a) Compute the 4 and 5 month moving average forecast for 7 marks b) Conduct an error analysis using Mean Absolute Deviation for the 4 and 5 month forecast in a) above 5 marks C) Compute the 3 month weighted moving average, given that the manager has allotted weights of 2, 3, 4 where the most recent data is given the highest weight 7 marks d) What is the MAD for the 3 month weighted moving average? S marks e) With exponential smoothing constants of a=0.2 and a = 0.4 compute both exponential smoothing forecast 10 marks f) Which exponential smoothing constant do you prefer, a 0.2 or a=0.4 and why using MAD as the deciding criteria 5 marks g) Of all the forecasting methods above fi.e 4 and 5 month moving average, 3 month weighted moving average. exponential smoothing a of 0-2 and a of 0.4) which method provides the best forecast and why 5 marks h) The Linstead tax office collects on average 53,500.00 from each paying customer. Using the preferred method, how much can the manager expect to collect in the first month of the new fiscal year 5 marks
