Question
Question 2 Data contains the number of monthly transit rides on a transportation system from June 2013 up until May 2017. Our goal is to
Question 2
Data contains the number of monthly transit rides on a transportation system from June 2013 up until May 2017. Our goal is to predict the ride volume for the following 12 months.
Keep the last 12 months as a holdout (validation) data set, and the remaining data as a training set.
Set the number of forecasts to 12.
- Create and attach the time series plot of the number of monthly transit rides. Does this time series exhibit trend and/or seasonality? Explain your answer.
- Based on your answer in part a, identify the best exponential smoothing model with appropriate smoothing constant.
- Attach the StatTools report. Also, include a plot of the predicted volume and actual over time.
- What are the RMSE and MAPE of the model based on the holdout data?
- What are the predicted ride volumes for June 2017-May 2018? Fill in the table with your predictions for the following 12 months.
| Month/Year | Transit Volume |
| Jun-2017 | |
| Jul-2017 | |
| Aug-2017 | |
| Sep-2017 | |
| Oct-2017 | |
| Nov-2017 | |
| Dec-2017 | |
| Jan-2018 | |
| Feb-2018 | |
| Mar-2018 | |
| Apr-2018 | |
| May-2018 |
- Based on your answer in part a, identify the best moving average model with appropriate span.
- Attach the StatTools report. Also, include a plot of the predicted volume and actual over time.
- What are the RMSE and MAPE of the model based on the holdout data?
- What are the predicted ride volumes for June 2017-May 2018?
Fill in the table with your predictions for the following 12 months
| Month/Year | Transit Volume |
| Jun-2017 | |
| Jul-2017 | |
| Aug-2017 | |
| Sep-2017 | |
| Oct-2017 | |
| Nov-2017 | |
| Dec-2017 | |
| Jan-2018 | |
| Feb-2018 | |
| Mar-2018 | |
| Apr-2018 | |
| May-2018 |
Data
| Month | Trips/month | ||
| Jun-13 | 21213 | ||
| Jul-13 | 31565 | ||
| Aug-13 | 37009 | ||
| Sep-13 | 38731 | ||
| Oct-13 | 36639 | ||
| Nov-13 | 24390 | ||
| Dec-13 | 15499 | ||
| Jan-14 | 10556 | ||
| Feb-14 | 8834 | ||
| Mar-14 | 15420 | ||
| Apr-14 | 24336 | ||
| May-14 | 30806 | ||
| Jun-14 | 34523 | ||
| Jul-14 | 34245 | ||
| Aug-14 | 34713 | ||
| Sep-14 | 34440 | ||
| Oct-14 | 29811 | ||
| Nov-14 | 19455 | ||
| Dec-14 | 14111 | ||
| Jan-15 | 10129 | ||
| Feb-15 | 7769 | ||
| Mar-15 | 12057 | ||
| Apr-15 | 23829 | ||
| May-15 | 33642 | ||
| Jun-15 | 33047 | ||
| Jul-15 | 35960 | ||
| Aug-15 | 38410 | ||
| Sep-15 | 42742 | ||
| Oct-15 | 39106 | ||
| Nov-15 | 32909 | ||
| Dec-15 | 25939 | ||
| Jan-16 | 17306 | ||
| Feb-16 | 19329 | ||
| Mar-16 | 29641 | ||
| Apr-16 | 33769 | ||
| May-16 | 39108 | ||
| Jun-16 | 48664 | ||
| Jul-16 | 44512 | ||
| Aug-16 | 50231 | ||
| Sep-16 | 54925 | ||
| Oct-16 | 50751 | ||
| Nov-16 | 39890 | ||
| Dec-16 | 26194 | ||
| Jan-17 | 33225 | ||
| Feb-17 | 28344 | ||
| Mar-17 | 24712 | ||
| Apr-17 | 43846 | ||
| May-17 | 48900 | ||
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
Step: 1
Get Instant Access to Expert-Tailored Solutions
See step-by-step solutions with expert insights and AI powered tools for academic success
Step: 2
Step: 3
Ace Your Homework with AI
Get the answers you need in no time with our AI-driven, step-by-step assistance
Get Started
Calculus With Applications
Authors: Margaret L Lial, Raymond N Greenwell, Nathan P Ritchey
10th Edition
0321831101, 9780321831101
