Question 2

The Singapore Furniture Association has engaged your team service as there is an on-going sentiment within the board that the business for furniture retailers in Singapore is declining due to the increasingly preferred way of shopping for furniture directly from overseas via online shopping platforms such as Taobao, Lazada and Shopee, where consumers can ship their furniture directly from China. Your team has been engaged to provide insights based on data. Your team is provided with the retail sales index (RSI) that the association tracks regularly. Please refer to the Excel file "GBA_Q2_InputFile".

(a) Using an appropriate forecasting method, forecast the RSI from October 2021 to June 2022. You are required to provide comments on the data, justification for the method used and the essential steps in the forecasting process.

(25 marks)

(b) Examine on your results in Question 2(a), provide the management a summary of the insight and highlight any concerns in your forecasting approach.

(35 marks)

Excel file "GBA_Q2_InputFile":

Year-Month	Industry	Retail Sales Index (RSI)
1989-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	54.5
1989-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	44.1
1989-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.8
1989-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	42.7
1989-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	48.5
1989-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.9
1989-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.9
1989-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	33.8
1989-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.2
1989-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	33.9
1989-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.3
1989-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.7
1990-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.4
1990-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.1
1990-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.1
1990-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	30.2
1990-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	34.1
1990-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.1
1990-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	32.6
1990-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	25
1990-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	29
1990-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	34.4
1990-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	29.2
1990-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	36
1991-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.9
1991-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	33.8
1991-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.1
1991-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	33.3
1991-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.7
1991-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	38.9
1991-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.2
1991-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.2
1991-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	34.5
1991-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.8
1991-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.2
1991-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.3
1992-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	38.2
1992-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	31.7
1992-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.3
1992-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.8
1992-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.6
1992-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.4
1992-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.9
1992-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.1
1992-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.2
1992-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.9
1992-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	37
1992-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.2
1993-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	39.3
1993-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	28.8
1993-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	38.3
1993-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.8
1993-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.9
1993-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.7
1993-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.7
1993-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	41.9
1993-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.1
1993-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.6
1993-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	49.5
1993-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	55.3
1994-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	44.3
1994-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	38.1
1994-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.9
1994-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.6
1994-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	42
1994-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.4
1994-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	39.1
1994-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	39.5
1994-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	39.3
1994-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.1
1994-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.2
1994-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	60.2
1995-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	49.1
1995-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	35.9
1995-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	42.6
1995-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.4
1995-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.6
1995-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.6
1995-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.8
1995-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	41
1995-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	41.6
1995-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	47.3
1995-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	46.4
1995-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	57.3
1996-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	54.8
1996-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	39.8
1996-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	49.6
1996-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.9
1996-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.9
1996-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	42.9
1996-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	42.7
1996-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	41.3
1996-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.6
1996-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	44
1996-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.6
1996-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	52
1997-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	49.5
1997-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.3
1997-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	50.1
1997-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	38.6
1997-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	44.1
1997-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.2
1997-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	47.2
1997-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	44.9
1997-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	44.1
1997-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	49
1997-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	47.9
1997-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	64.9
1998-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	62.2
1998-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.7
1998-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	71
1998-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	32.8
1998-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	34
1998-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	39.8
1998-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	41.1
1998-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	37.7
1998-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	43.9
1998-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	46
1998-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.1
1998-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	56.4
1999-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	56.9
1999-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	40.9
1999-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	47.2
1999-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	36.9
1999-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	44.3
1999-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	47.9
1999-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	46.4
1999-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.6
1999-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	47.1
1999-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	46.1
1999-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	50.4
1999-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	65.6
2000-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	63.9
2000-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	48.6
2000-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	47.4
2000-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	44.8
2000-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	49.3
2000-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	51.7
2000-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	54.3
2000-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.7
2000-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	52.2
2000-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	50.6
2000-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	61.5
2000-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	75
2001-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	76.5
2001-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	45.6
2001-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	53.7
2001-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	48.4
2001-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	53.8
2001-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	64.8
2001-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	58.9
2001-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	53.8
2001-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	56.1
2001-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	56.6
2001-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	65.2
2001-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	73.7
2002-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	75.4
2002-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	48.7
2002-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	57.7
2002-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	51.5
2002-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	59
2002-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	55.7
2002-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	56.6
2002-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	54.9
2002-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	50.9
2002-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	54.7
2002-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	59.6
2002-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	81.5
2003-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	81.5
2003-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	54.4
2003-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	55.6
2003-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	56.6
2003-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	59.2
2003-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	64.9
2003-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	69.2
2003-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	59.3
2003-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	62.2
2003-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	65
2003-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	67.1
2003-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	82.3
2004-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	87.7
2004-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	56.4
2004-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	68.5
2004-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	63.3
2004-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	63.6
2004-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	65.8
2004-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	73.4
2004-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	60.4
2004-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	64.7
2004-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	69
2004-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	72.6
2004-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.3
2005-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	72.3
2005-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	54.4
2005-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	59.4
2005-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	57.9
2005-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	61.1
2005-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	64.4
2005-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	66.3
2005-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	62.9
2005-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	60.1
2005-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	63.3
2005-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	76.1
2005-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	90.9
2006-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	80.6
2006-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	55.9
2006-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	65.4
2006-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	61.7
2006-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	65
2006-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	65.8
2006-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	74.9
2006-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	62.5
2006-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	62.5
2006-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	69.5
2006-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	81.2
2006-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	96.1
2007-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	75.4
2007-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	52
2007-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	61
2007-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	60
2007-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	61.2
2007-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	63.3
2007-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	62.5
2007-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	61.5
2007-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	58.6
2007-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	68.5
2007-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	75.8
2007-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	95.1
2008-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	76.3
2008-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	60.1
2008-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	66.9
2008-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	65.8
2008-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	67.3
2008-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	72.2
2008-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	74.6
2008-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	69.6
2008-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	66.3
2008-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	73.9
2008-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	81.1
2008-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	99.3
2009-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	90.2
2009-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	66.7
2009-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	82.7
2009-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	76
2009-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	78.2
2009-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	77.1
2009-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	82.3
2009-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	73.1
2009-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	75.4
2009-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	88.1
2009-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	83.5
2009-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	103.6
2010-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.6
2010-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	70.1
2010-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	82.1
2010-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	78.6
2010-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	84.9
2010-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	78.3
2010-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	81.5
2010-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	76.6
2010-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	82.8
2010-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	90.9
2010-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	85.8
2010-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	116.6
2011-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	107.9
2011-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	84.7
2011-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	97.2
2011-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	92.8
2011-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	96.8
2011-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	117.5
2011-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.6
2011-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	85.8
2011-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.2
2011-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	99.5
2011-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	95.8
2011-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	122.5
2012-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	119.7
2012-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	87.2
2012-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	112.9
2012-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.7
2012-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	97.4
2012-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	99
2012-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	101.8
2012-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	90.4
2012-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	99
2012-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.4
2012-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	84.9
2012-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	107.1
2013-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.1
2013-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	73.2
2013-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	87.6
2013-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	85.5
2013-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	90.2
2013-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.9
2013-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	98.7
2013-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	90
2013-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	97.9
2013-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	90.5
2013-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	92.2
2013-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	110.8
2014-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	110.1
2014-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	76.1
2014-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	97.3
2014-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	95.7
2014-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	98.8
2014-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	100.5
2014-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	103.3
2014-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	102.6
2014-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	101.2
2014-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	99.5
2014-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	104.1
2014-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	127.3
2015-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	119.5
2015-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	82.5
2015-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	102.4
2015-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	96.9
2015-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	104.4
2015-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	103.6
2015-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	107.4
2015-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	105.7
2015-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	99.4
2015-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	105.5
2015-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	103.1
2015-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	129.7
2016-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	117.7
2016-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.4
2016-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	110.8
2016-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	100.8
2016-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	106.1
2016-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	108.7
2016-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	109
2016-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	109.8
2016-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	104
2016-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	107.2
2016-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	106.6
2016-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	132.1
2017-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	120.4
2017-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	87.7
2017-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	103.8
2017-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	98.7
2017-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	95.5
2017-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	105.9
2017-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	108.6
2017-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	103.4
2017-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	100.4
2017-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	100.2
2017-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	101.5
2017-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	127.1
2018-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	117.4
2018-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	79.4
2018-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	96.8
2018-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	95.2
2018-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	94.5
2018-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	105
2018-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	111.4
2018-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.1
2018-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.5
2018-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	98.1
2018-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	96.9
2018-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	120.6
2019-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	114.8
2019-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	85.7
2019-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	88.5
2019-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.5
2019-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	93.6
2019-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	100.9
2019-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	105.9
2019-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	95
2019-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.3
2019-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	92.6
2019-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	96.9
2019-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	115.1
2020-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	115.6
2020-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	75.4
2020-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	92.2
2020-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	88.9
2020-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	95.5
2020-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	106.4
2020-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	103.4
2020-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	89.4
2020-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	92
2020-10	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.7
2020-11	Furniture & Household Equipment	95.9
2020-12	Furniture & Household Equipment	120.8
2021-1	Furniture & Household Equipment	105.8
2021-2	Furniture & Household Equipment	79.6
2021-3	Furniture & Household Equipment	94.8
2021-4	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.3
2021-5	Furniture & Household Equipment	97.3
2021-6	Furniture & Household Equipment	112.9
2021-7	Furniture & Household Equipment	97.9
2021-8	Furniture & Household Equipment	94.4
2021-9	Furniture & Household Equipment	91.3