Question #2: The table below includes the statistics on Covid-19 in Ottawa since the beginning of the pandemic (according to Ottawa Public Health and Ontario Ministry of Health). The number of confirmed new cases with Covid-19 over time increased exponentially during the first outbreak of Covid-19 (from March 25th to May 2nd). After May 2nd, a decline in the rate of new cases was observed due to the new strict regulation to prevent the spread of the virus. However, after Sept 7th, once students returned to school, the number of new confirmed cases started to grow exponentially again. A) Plot the Data (Cumulative Cases with Time) and identify the exponential growth periods. B) Find the growth rate constant, k, for the first and second outbreak? (Use March 11 and Sept 7 as Day 0 with number of cases NO = new cases in the previous 10 days which is the number of infected people at time 0) C) Estimate the number of infected people at the end November with current k value and if the City can reduce the k value in half through tighter social distancing rules. Calculate the doubling time for each k value. 1 Confirmed cases 1 3 10 13 16 Confirmed cases 1849 1885 1896 1908 1930 1935 1962 1977 1992 2004 2009 2024 Confirmed cases 2481 2522 2555 2560 2595 2623 2650 2669 2687 2701 2728 2758 2807 2839 2871 2910 2946 2030 2036 date 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 31-Mar 02-Apr 04-Apr 06-Apr 08-Apr 10-Apr 12-Apr 14-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 20-Apr 22-Apr 24-Apr 26-Apr 28-Apr 30-Apr 02-May 04-May 06-May 08-May 10-May 12-May 14-May 16-May 18-May date 20-May 22-May 24-May 26-May 28-May 30-May 01-Jun 03-Jun 05-Jun 07-Jun 09-Jun 11-Jun 13-Jun 15-Jun 17-Jun 19-Jun 21-Jun 23-Jun 25-Jun 27-Jun 29-Jun 01-Jul 03-Jul 05-Jul 07-Jul 09-Jul 11-Jul 13-Jul 15-Jul 17-Jul 19-Jul 21-Jul 23-Jul 25-Jul 27-Jul 20 24 27 75 122 144 252 322 370 429 494 561 619 678 757 857 943 1034 1110 1221 1297 1420 1504 1558 1603 1653 1693 1725 1774 1802 2043 2049 2055 2061 date 29-Jul 31-Jul 02-Aug 04-Aug 06-Aug 08-Aug 10-Aug 12-Aug 14-Aug 16-Aug 18-Aug 20-Aug 22-Aug 24-Aug 26-Aug 28-Aug 30-Aug 01-Sep 03-Sep 05-Sep 07-Sep 09-Sep 11-Sep 13-Sep 15-Sep 17-Sep 19-Sep 21-Sep 23-Sep 25-Sep 27-Sep 29-Sep 01-Oct 05-Oct 30-Nov 2975 3009 3052 3098 3151 3200 3274 3387 2069 2079 2086 2094 2104 2110 2118 2128 2146 2159 2167 2189 2224 2287 2334 2389 2443 3486 3604 3679 3837 3960 4063 4285 4388 4853 ?? (predict) Question #2: The table below includes the statistics on Covid-19 in Ottawa since the beginning of the pandemic (according to Ottawa Public Health and Ontario Ministry of Health). The number of confirmed new cases with Covid-19 over time increased exponentially during the first outbreak of Covid-19 (from March 25th to May 2nd). After May 2nd, a decline in the rate of new cases was observed due to the new strict regulation to prevent the spread of the virus. However, after Sept 7th, once students returned to school, the number of new confirmed cases started to grow exponentially again. A) Plot the Data (Cumulative Cases with Time) and identify the exponential growth periods. B) Find the growth rate constant, k, for the first and second outbreak? (Use March 11 and Sept 7 as Day 0 with number of cases NO = new cases in the previous 10 days which is the number of infected people at time 0) C) Estimate the number of infected people at the end November with current k value and if the City can reduce the k value in half through tighter social distancing rules. Calculate the doubling time for each k value. 1 Confirmed cases 1 3 10 13 16 Confirmed cases 1849 1885 1896 1908 1930 1935 1962 1977 1992 2004 2009 2024 Confirmed cases 2481 2522 2555 2560 2595 2623 2650 2669 2687 2701 2728 2758 2807 2839 2871 2910 2946 2030 2036 date 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 31-Mar 02-Apr 04-Apr 06-Apr 08-Apr 10-Apr 12-Apr 14-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 20-Apr 22-Apr 24-Apr 26-Apr 28-Apr 30-Apr 02-May 04-May 06-May 08-May 10-May 12-May 14-May 16-May 18-May date 20-May 22-May 24-May 26-May 28-May 30-May 01-Jun 03-Jun 05-Jun 07-Jun 09-Jun 11-Jun 13-Jun 15-Jun 17-Jun 19-Jun 21-Jun 23-Jun 25-Jun 27-Jun 29-Jun 01-Jul 03-Jul 05-Jul 07-Jul 09-Jul 11-Jul 13-Jul 15-Jul 17-Jul 19-Jul 21-Jul 23-Jul 25-Jul 27-Jul 20 24 27 75 122 144 252 322 370 429 494 561 619 678 757 857 943 1034 1110 1221 1297 1420 1504 1558 1603 1653 1693 1725 1774 1802 2043 2049 2055 2061 date 29-Jul 31-Jul 02-Aug 04-Aug 06-Aug 08-Aug 10-Aug 12-Aug 14-Aug 16-Aug 18-Aug 20-Aug 22-Aug 24-Aug 26-Aug 28-Aug 30-Aug 01-Sep 03-Sep 05-Sep 07-Sep 09-Sep 11-Sep 13-Sep 15-Sep 17-Sep 19-Sep 21-Sep 23-Sep 25-Sep 27-Sep 29-Sep 01-Oct 05-Oct 30-Nov 2975 3009 3052 3098 3151 3200 3274 3387 2069 2079 2086 2094 2104 2110 2118 2128 2146 2159 2167 2189 2224 2287 2334 2389 2443 3486 3604 3679 3837 3960 4063 4285 4388 4853 ?? (predict)