Question 3: Forecasting (15 marks)

Bulumakau Uasivi sells fresh goat meat. Monthly sales for a 7-month period are as follows:

Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Sales (kg)	180	168	159	175	190	205	180

Forecast sales for September using each of the following approaches:

1. Naive Forecasting (1 mark)

1. Weighted Moving Averages using 0.6, 0.4 and 0.2 as weights (3 marks)

1. Exponential Smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.6, assuming a February forecast of 175kg (8 marks)

1. Discuss when and why you would use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast. (2 marks)

Which method do you consider the least appropriate? Why?