Question 3

Many political races in the US are close, News organizations invest a lot of money in trying to predict these close races or draw attention to predicting big wins. If CBS or CNN predicts that the incumbent will win with 62% of the vote( when 51% is needed to win,) they are using a confidence interval around the proportion. News organizations usually provide the margin of error, +/-3% or the confidence interval 95% CI (59.65) in the fine print, so that an informed consumer can appraise the reliability of the prediction. Which of the following is an appropriate interpretation of the statistics "62% of the vote, 95% CI (59,65)" when a 51% majority is needed to win.?

A. The incumbent is expected to win somewhere between 59% and 65% of the vote. Because 59%is significantly higher than 51% required to win the election, it is easy to predict the winner.

B. In the past, 95% of the incumbents who had 62% of the vote before election ended up with more than the 51% required to win the election.

C. The incumbent is expected to win somewhere between 62% and 95% of the vote and 62% is significantly higher than the 51% required to win the election

D. The odds are 95 to 1 in favor of the incumbent to win the election with 62% of the vote.