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Questions Obtain the ABS statistics for Building Approvals, Australia - 8731006 - available at: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-approvals- australia/jun-2022 Download Table 6. For the purposes of this report
Questions Obtain the ABS statistics for Building Approvals, Australia - 8731006 - available at: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-approvals- australia/jun-2022 Download Table 6. For the purposes of this report you are to consider the Total number of dwelling units building approvals data. There are three series in Table 6: Original, Seasonally-adjusted, and Trend (please choose carefully throughout this report!)For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from July 2012 to June 2021 as the sample of data that is available to you that is, ignore any recent observations. This means that the rst actual observation in your Excel file is from July 2012 and your last actual observation in your Excel file is from June 2021. For the Original data for the Total number of dwelling units (Series lD: A418427K) available in Table 6: Forecast the out-ofsample values for every month in the period July 2021 - June 2022 (both months inclusive) using Winter's Exponential Smoothing (Multiplicative) with the following parameters: alpha = 0.35, beta = 0.35, and gamma = 0.35. For the seeds of the level, trend, and seasonal components use the methods described and discussed in class. Before you begin Exercise 2, let's check that you have the right data! The average should be 9756.2! Once you perform Winters Exponential Smoothing with alpha, beta and garn ma, what are the following numerical values: 11. The seasonal component for May 2021. 12. The within-sample forecast for March 2021. 13. The out-ofsample forecast for June 2022. 14. The MAE. 15. The MSE. Critically think for a way to optimise alpha, beta, and gamma via the MSE, and report the following values after your optimisation: 16. Alpha 17. Gamma 18. The MSE 19. The within-sample forecast for March 2021. 20. The out-ofsample forecast for June 2022
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