R Language only

Pallavi was convicted in 1998 of killing her two children. Pallavi claimed cot death or sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), but judges concluded that she was guilty based on statistical evidence presented by a paediatrician that the odds of two children from wealthy family dying of SIDS is 1 in 73 millions. This number came from the probability of a single SIDS which was 1 in 8543 back then (8543 8543 = 73 millions)

We define two events. H is the event that both children died of of SIDS. D is the event that both children died. Assuming that the probability of two children being murdered by their mother is 1 in 200 million, what is the probability of Pallavi being innocent (her children died of SIDS) conditional on that her children died, P(H/D)?

Calculate the probability based on Bayes' theorem. Do you think Pallavi is innocent? For simplicity, assume that there are only two possible causes of children's death: SIDS and murder. Simulation in R language.