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Rate of return Scenario Probability Stock fund Bond fund T-bills Severe recession .05 -37% -9% Mild recession .25 -11% 15% 6.0% Normal growth .40

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Rate of return Scenario Probability Stock fund Bond fund T-bills Severe recession .05 -37% -9% Mild recession .25 -11% 15% 6.0% Normal growth .40 14% 8% Boom .30 30% -5%

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