Read the passage below and Calculate what confidence Jorge should have that his ceiling has a water leak?:

Jorge owns an apartment. As a matter of fact, 29% of people in his country own an apartment. He is now concerned that the ceiling of his apartment might be leaking, after seeing that there is a small lump in the paint of his ceiling. The manager of his apartment building mentioned that there had been five water leaks in Jorge's building that year, a building that has 100 units. It's true that minor paint damage to bathrooms is quite common; he sees it about half the time when he visit's someone's apartment even when they don't have a water leak. However, he knows that every building that has a water leak in the ceiling will have damage to its ceiling's paint, so now he is sure that there must be a leak.