Read the tree fall exercise problem. Develop a decision tree showing three options: do nothing; buy insurance; and remove the tree before it can fall. Important Point: If the home owner buys the insurance, and the tree falls, the insurance deductible covers both the repair of the home and the removal of the tree. Submit a copy of your solution (both decision tree and expected value calculations) to the professor. (NOTE: There should be only a single expected value number for each of the three options.) Be sure to tell me which solution you would choose and why. Using the Monte Carlo Excel spreadsheet format provided below, enter in some reasonable times for deboarding the passengers, cleaning the airplane, and reboarding the passengers. Try several variations to see how a Monte Carlo simulation works. Do not modify the imbedded formulas. Use the worksheet as it is. Submit a copy of the final Excel form to the professor. Also indicate what your recommended number for the turn around time would be based on your analysis and what the probability of occurrence would be according to the Excel spreadsheet. (NOTE: The number being submitted is the recommended total turnaround time not the individual numbers for each of the steps like deboarding, cleaning, etc.) Remember the airline would like the total turnaround time to be as low as possible to maximize the amount of time that the airplanes are actually flying and making money. On the other hand, too aggressive of a turnaround time can result in a poor on-time departure rate, which is detrimental to attracting customers. Read the tree fall exercise problem. Develop a decision tree showing three options: do nothing; buy insurance; and remove the tree before it can fall. Important Point: If the home owner buys the insurance, and the tree falls, the insurance deductible covers both the repair of the home and the removal of the tree. Submit a copy of your solution (both decision tree and expected value calculations) to the professor. (NOTE: There should be only a single expected value number for each of the three options.) Be sure to tell me which solution you would choose and why. Using the Monte Carlo Excel spreadsheet format provided below, enter in some reasonable times for deboarding the passengers, cleaning the airplane, and reboarding the passengers. Try several variations to see how a Monte Carlo simulation works. Do not modify the imbedded formulas. Use the worksheet as it is. Submit a copy of the final Excel form to the professor. Also indicate what your recommended number for the turn around time would be based on your analysis and what the probability of occurrence would be according to the Excel spreadsheet. (NOTE: The number being submitted is the recommended total turnaround time not the individual numbers for each of the steps like deboarding, cleaning, etc.) Remember the airline would like the total turnaround time to be as low as possible to maximize the amount of time that the airplanes are actually flying and making money. On the other hand, too aggressive of a turnaround time can result in a poor on-time departure rate, which is detrimental to attracting customers
