Forecast Duff has experienced the following demand for Duff Swill, Duff Original, and Duff 200 for the last 8 years. Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model (a = 0.30, B = 0.20) and a linear trend line model for all three variations of Duff Beer. Compare the MAD for each variation's forecast and choose an overall forecasting style that seems to be the most accurate. Demand (Barrels) Year Duff Swill Duff Original Duff 200 1 4789 4260 3000 2 4890 4510 3120 5100 4050 3370 4 5124 3720 2900 5199 3900 2987 6500 3470 1800 7 7345 2890 1785 8 8901 3100 1823 Quantity Discounts Regardless of the variation of Duff beer, Duff is always sold in a 12 oz can. Duff has been purchasing manufactured cans for each of its beers from the Aluminati at the quantity discount price below. However, after digging though the financials and connecting the dots, you are beginning to think the Aluminati may be a conspiracy. Recently you have contacted Aluminate who are eager for your business they have quoted you the competitive prices shown below. Use the forecast model previously chosen as the best predict sales for year 9 and order the appropriate number of cans. You may find the conversion chart handy 1 Barrel = 31 Gallons = 248 pints = 330 12 oz cans Quanity Aluninati Price Aluminate 500,000 - 999,999 0.75 0.7 1,000,000 - 1,999,999 0.67 0.62 2,000,000 - 2,999,999 0.59 0.54 3,000,000 - 3,999,999 0.51 0.46 4,000,000 - 4,999,999 0.43 0.44 5,000,000 - 5,999,999 0.35 0.4 6,000,000 - 6,999,999 0.27 0.27 7,000,000 - 7,999,999 0.19 0.19 8,000,000 8,999,999 9,000,000 9,999,999 0.11 0.11 0.03 0.03 Holding Cost per can $0.01 $0.02 Delivery Cost per trip $800 $780