Replies:

• In Module/Week 2: Post a substantive reply to the thread of at least 2 classmates. A substantive reply includes at least 150 words analyzing the thread as well as adding to the research and concepts put forth in that thread. The goal is to create meaningful discussion. To simply restate the idea already put forth or to concur with the first reply is not adding substantial discussion. That is why it is good to do additional outside research.
• Post your replies in the forum textbox, not in an attachment like you did for your thread, to the thread with which you would like to respond.

Discussion criteria for this assignment are fulfilled when you have posted 1 thread (concerning your topic) and 2 replies (1 each to 2 classmates? threads). Make sure to provide scholarly and educational material and work that is engaging and substantive. Simply meeting the minimum requirements earns one only the minimum grade.

THe two documents the=at require replies are attached

Running head: FORECASTING Discussion Demand forecasting can potentially make or break a company. Too much merchandise can cause a company to slash prices in order to liquidate excess, while not enough of a product can cause a reduction in sales. Banker (2013) says that \"almost any company can reduce inventory and improve service levels if they forecast better.\" Company's typically use demand forecasting tools to determine consumer shopping habits and collaborate the business to consumer supply chain. Belk department store is a southern based chain that has specialized in retail clothing, shoes, accessories, furnishings, and housewares since 1888. In 2014 Belk management chose to explore a $150 million business/IT platform to more precisely manage inventory in their 299 stores. SAS Analytics introduced Belk to merchandising software that allowed for demand 1 FORECASTING 2 forecasting and seasonal merchandise management as well as other functions that assisted leadership with assortment planning and price and space optimization (Belk, 2011). Amy Wooden, Belk's EVP of Merchandise and Planning, noted, \"With SAS demand forecasting and planning we'll make more productive use of inventory, reduce supply chain risk, and there is the anticipation of significant annual payback\" (Belk, 2011). Belk utilizes a time-series method to conduct demand forecasting for their company. This type of forecasting is beneficial for companies that change out inventory in short term regular intervals. In Belk's case this is mostly seasonal however, it can by cyclical depending on economic, political, and business conditions that may be out of the company's control. Belk's fiscal year 2014 annual report notes that \"consumer purchases of items generally decline during recessionary and other periods where disposable income is adversely affected,\" confirming that Belk is aware that the company's bottom line is dependent on their ability to anticipate consumer expectations. Belk management uses forecasting to predict everything from merchandise mix, quality, style, service, credit availability, and spending patterns in order to predict the most accurate inventory levels. This ultimately reduces the likelihood that they will have excess or diminished product availability which can adversely affect sales and brand loyalty (Annual report, 2014). Businesses are well aware that there is no crystal ball when it comes to predicting the future however, they also know that if they want to make a substantial profit without having excessive inventory they must have analysists that can accurately forecast. Today's environment is fast paced and dynamic therefore, it is crucial that firms select the appropriate forecasting technique. Singh (2014) says that forecasting is more than just using sophisticated techniques, it FORECASTING 3 is about identifying the variables that will assist an organization with reducing costs and aligning marketing as well as other logistical decisions that will create supply chain visibility because if the forecast is wrong, there can be serious ramifications. Reference Annual Report. (2014, April 15). Belk FY14 annual report. Retrieved from https://www.belk.com/media/pdf/AboutUs/CorporateInformation/FY14AnnualReport.pdf Banker, S. (2013, September, 16). Demand forecasting: going beyond historical shipment data. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2013/09/16/demandforecasting-going-beyond-historical-shipment-data/#628949d842cc Belk. (2011, November 07). Belk chooses SAS merchandise planning to further localize assortments. Retrieved from http://risnews.edgl.com/retail-news/Belk-Chooses-SASMerchandise-Planning-to-Further-Localize-Assortments76625 Singh, R. (2014, August 18). Demand forecasting in a supply chain. Retrieved from http://www.business-standard.com/article/management/demand-forecasting-in-a-supplychain-114081700501_1.html FORECASTING 4 Running head: FORECASTING Discussion Demand forecasting can potentially make or break a company. Too much merchandise can cause a company to slash prices in order to liquidate excess, while not enough of a product can cause a reduction in sales. Banker (2013) says that \"almost any company can reduce inventory and improve service levels if they forecast better.\" Company's typically use demand forecasting tools to determine consumer shopping habits and collaborate the business to consumer supply chain. Belk department store is a southern based chain that has specialized in retail clothing, shoes, accessories, furnishings, and housewares since 1888. In 2014 Belk management chose to explore a $150 million business/IT platform to more precisely manage inventory in their 299 1 FORECASTING 2 stores. SAS Analytics introduced Belk to merchandising software that allowed for demand forecasting and seasonal merchandise management as well as other functions that assisted leadership with assortment planning and price and space optimization (Belk, 2011). Amy Wooden, Belk's EVP of Merchandise and Planning, noted, \"With SAS demand forecasting and planning we'll make more productive use of inventory, reduce supply chain risk, and there is the anticipation of significant annual payback\" (Belk, 2011). Belk utilizes a time-series method to conduct demand forecasting for their company. This type of forecasting is beneficial for companies that change out inventory in short term regular intervals. In Belk's case this is mostly seasonal however, it can by cyclical depending on economic, political, and business conditions that may be out of the company's control. Belk's fiscal year 2014 annual report notes that \"consumer purchases of items generally decline during recessionary and other periods where disposable income is adversely affected,\" confirming that Belk is aware that the company's bottom line is dependent on their ability to anticipate consumer expectations. Belk management uses forecasting to predict everything from merchandise mix, quality, style, service, credit availability, and spending patterns in order to predict the most accurate inventory levels. This ultimately reduces the likelihood that they will have excess or diminished product availability which can adversely affect sales and brand loyalty (Annual report, 2014). Businesses are well aware that there is no crystal ball when it comes to predicting the future however, they also know that if they want to make a substantial profit without having excessive inventory they must have analysists that can accurately forecast. Today's environment is fast paced and dynamic therefore, it is crucial that firms select the appropriate forecasting FORECASTING 3 technique. Singh (2014) says that forecasting is more than just using sophisticated techniques, it is about identifying the variables that will assist an organization with reducing costs and aligning marketing as well as other logistical decisions that will create supply chain visibility because if the forecast is wrong, there can be serious ramifications. Reference Annual Report. (2014, April 15). Belk FY14 annual report. Retrieved from https://www.belk.com/media/pdf/AboutUs/CorporateInformation/FY14AnnualReport.pdf Banker, S. (2013, September, 16). Demand forecasting: going beyond historical shipment data. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2013/09/16/demandforecasting-going-beyond-historical-shipment-data/#628949d842cc Belk. (2011, November 07). Belk chooses SAS merchandise planning to further localize assortments. Retrieved from http://risnews.edgl.com/retail-news/Belk-Chooses-SASMerchandise-Planning-to-Further-Localize-Assortments76625 FORECASTING Singh, R. (2014, August 18). Demand forecasting in a supply chain. Retrieved from http://www.business-standard.com/article/management/demand-forecasting-in-a-supplychain-114081700501_1.html 4