Question
Review the Appendix to Chapter 1 Measuring Economic Activity, Prices, and the Inflation Rate in Cecchetti and Schoenholtz (2021) especially the section The GDP Deflator
- Review the Appendix to Chapter 1 "Measuring Economic Activity, Prices, and the Inflation Rate" in Cecchetti and Schoenholtz (2021) especially the section "The GDP Deflator and the Inflation Rate."
- Review "Tools of the Trade: The Consumer Price Index" in Chapter 2.
- Review the Fisher Equation in Chapter 4 in Cecchetti and Schoenholtz (2021):
Equation (10) i = r + e
where
i = nominal interest rate
r = real interest rate
e = expected inflation.
- Select a year in each of the following decades: 1970s, 1990s, and 2010s, and collect the data requested below. (Please notify your instructor should any of the suggested links below not work so that substitutes may be found, and if you find any working alternatives for the requested data please share the links with the class.)
- For historical rates go to FRED Economic Research's 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate,Links to an external site. and then click on Max and scroll on the chart line to find a nominal interest rate at the beginning of any year in each of the following decades:
(See Appendix B to Chapter 1 on Using FRED which is the database at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.)
First Business Day in Year Chosen (A) | One-Year Nominal Treasury Rate on that Day (B) | |||||
1970s | ||||||
1990s | ||||||
2010s |
- Next find inflation data that occurred in each of the years you chose after the first business day of each year:
- For annual CPI (%) go to FRED Economic Research's page, "Inflation, consumer prices for the United States."Links to an external site.
- For annual GDP implicit price deflator go to most recent Economic Report of the PresidentLinks to an external site. where Table B-3 provides annual "Percent change from preceding period in the GDP Implicit Price Deflator." Use the subsequent years number for your chosen years calculation.
First Business Day in Year Chosen (A) | One-Year Nominal Treasury Rate on that Day (B) | Chosen Year's Annual CPI (%) (C) | Chosen Years Annual Implicit Price Deflator (%) (D) | |||
1970s | ||||||
1990s | ||||||
2010s |
- Based on the Fisher equation, calculate the actual real rate of interest realized in each year based on both measures of inflation.
First Business Day in Year Chosen (A) | One-Year Nominal Treasury Rate on that Day (B) | Chosen Years Annual CPI (%) (C) | Chosen Years Annual Implicit Price Deflator (%) (D) | Year's Real Rate based on CPI = (B C) | Year's Real Rate based on Implicit Price Deflator = (B D) | |
1970s | ||||||
1990s | ||||||
2010s |
Based on your results, answer the following questions:
In which years was it better to be a borrower? Explain.
In which years was it better to be an investor? Explain.
- By the due date indicated, upload your work.
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