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Revised Decision Tree Part The recent dramatic increase of the prime interest rate and still uncertain situation with COVID-19 affected the company's plans. Cloverdale

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Revised Decision Tree Part The recent dramatic increase of the prime interest rate and still uncertain situation with COVID-19 affected the company's plans. Cloverdale Development Corporation managers are thinking about hiring Tkaronto Research Group (TRG) to conduct a market research. Then, TRG would come up with either favorable report predicting strong demand, or unfavorable report predicting weak demand on the real estate market. It is known that in 80% of cases when strong demand took place, TRG had predicted it correctly. It is also known that in 85% of cases when weak demand occurred, TRG had predicted it correctly. TRO specialists need a month to complete their analysis, and they have to use expensive software, supercomputers, and hire additional computer and logistics analysts. (d) Suppose that you need to construct a revised decision tree. First, fill in the following revised probability tables for the favorable and unfavorable reports Round joint probability values, P(Favorable), P(Unfavorable), and the posterior probability values to 4 decimals places. Probability Revisions given a Favorable Report State of Prior Probability Conditional Probability i P(Fav./State of Nature) Joint Probability Nature Strong 0.63 Weak 0.37 P(Favorable)- Posterior Probability P(State of Nature/Fav.) 10000 State of Nature Prior Probability Conditional Probability P(Unfav./State of Nature) Joint Probability Probability Revisions given an Unfavorable Report Posterior Probability P(State of Nature/Unfav.) Strong 0.63 Weak 0.37 P(Unfavorable) (e) Using the revised probability tables, please identify the revised/posterior probabilities which you are going to use in the revised decision tree: Keep 4 decimal places in the following answers. P( Strong demand Favorable report)= P Weak demand Favorable report) = P( Strong demad Unfavorable report)= P Weak demand Unfavorable report)- (f) Now you start constructing the revised decision tree. Select the correct sketch of the leftmost part of the revised decision tree based on the 1.0000

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