Ringgit higher against US dollar in early trade

Bernama, 10 May 2021

KUALA LUMPUR (May 10): The ringgit opened the week on a positive note, supported by a broadly weaker US dollar, higher oil prices and an enduring global economic recovery despite the "swing and a miss" on last Friday's US jobs report, said an analyst. At 9.04am, the local currency had risen to 4.1000/1030 against the greenback from last Friday's close at 4.1100/1140.

SPI Asset Management global managing partner Stephen Innes said a sharply below-consensus read in April's US non-farm payrolls prompted a sell-off in the US dollar across the board last Friday as it likely relieved some pressure from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to shift to less dovish rhetoric. For April, the US non-farm payrolls increased by a much less-than-expected 266,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% amid an escalating shortage of available workers.

At the same time, he said the data miss was not enough to negatively impact the underlying recovery story, leaving the global risk sentiment supported, as equities can also continue to benefit from the lower-for-longer story. "And the global recovery may continue to put some pressure on the US dollar in the week ahead. Indeed, the large beat on China exports last week points to an upswing in the global economy that Malaysia's exporters are also benefiting from," Innes told Bernama.

At the opening today, the ringgit was traded lower against other major currencies. Against the British pound, it fell to 5.7571/7586 from 5.7203/7267, and decreased against the yen to 3.7705/7743 from last Friday's close at 3.7662/7702. Vis--vis the Singapore dollar, the ringgit eased to 3.0918/0947 from 3.0870/0916, and declined against the euro to 4.9856/9897 from 4.9632/9697.

15 Marks

a) The news article mentions three factors that explain ringgit's appreciation against the U.S. dollar namely, the weaker U.S. dollar, the higher oil price and the state of the global economic recovery. Use the demand and supply currency to explain how the three (3) factors mentioned above can influence the ringgit against U.S. dollar exchange rate. [15 marks]

Report question issue Report question issue icon

15 Marks

b) The interest rate differential in the U.S. and Malaysia can also influence the ringgit and U.S. dollar exchange rate. Suppose that the interest rate in Malaysia increases in the near future while the interest rate in the U.S. remains the same (ceteris paribus). Explain the prediction of the ringgit and U.S. dollar exchange rate based on the demand and supply framework? How about the prediction of the International Fisher Effect? How can you reconcile the two predictions? [15 marks]