Question
Rusty Williams, the owner and CEO of The Rusty Bicycle Company, a small manufacturer and distributer of recreational bikes, has dejectedly watched sales of his
Rusty Williams, the owner and CEO of The Rusty Bicycle Company, a small manufacturer and distributer of recreational bikes, has dejectedly watched sales of his companys flagship bike, the WindRunner, decline precipitously over the past 7 years. Believing that the trend is irreversible, Rusty has taken the drastic step of shutting down the operation of his firm in an effort to reduce costs while he tries to figure out how to rescue the firm he has spent the bulk of his life building.
Rusty asks his brother John, the head design engineer at his firm to design and build a prototype of a new bicycle that might be able to save the company. Rusty tells John to forget about conventional bicycle design and to think big and come up with something truly revolutionary.
After about 6 weeks of intense work, John comes back to Rusty with a proposal for the WindRunner 2.0, a bicycle unlike anything else on the market today. John believes that the specialty nature of the new bicycle suggests that, while unit sales volume may be relatively low, the bicycle should command a premium sales price. Specifically, he thinks that customers would be willing to pay upwards of $845 per bike.
Rusty, intrigued by the new design, hires a market research consultant, Sandy Frazier, to study the potential demand for the WindRunner 2.0. As projecting demand for a completely new product is notoriously difficult, she limits her prediction to a 5 year horizon. Sandy gives the following forecast to Rusty in exchange for her customary fee of $45,000.
Year | Sales Volume |
1 | 7,000 |
2 | 7,000 |
3 | 7,000 |
4 | 7,000 |
5 | 7,000 |
Rusty is optimistic that the expected sales revenue will be enough to save his company. Deciding to move forward on the evaluation of this project, he asks John what new manufacturing capacity will be needed to begin production. John thinks that he could reconfigure the firms current manufacturing facility to produce the new model bicycle, although the current production machinery, purchased over 20 years ago, is woefully inadequate. He estimates that the necessary new equipment could be purchased for $2.5 million and that the whole manufacturing process will incur fixed operating costs of $3 million per year. Additionally, he estimates the variable costs of production to run $260 per bike produced.
John further thinks that the existing production equipment, which will no longer be needed, could be sold for $400,000. The existing equipment was classified for tax purposes under the 15 year MACRS category. As a result of a recent exemption given to small businesses, Rusty will not have to use the MACRS depreciation schedules for new capital assets acquired. Instead, the new equipment will be depreciated straight-line to zero over the 5 year planning horizon. John thinks that the new production equipment will be worthless and scrapped at the end of 5 years.
Finally, John tells Rusty that he will need about $300,000 in raw materials (i.e. parts and supplies) for the bicycles to begin production. This expenditure will not be recovered at the end of the project. Rusty, worried about spending so much cash on parts, calls a supplier, Rodney Murdock, to see about short-term credit options. Unfortunately, due to the precarious position Rusty finds his company in, the supplier is unable to offer any credit terms and will insist upon cash on delivery payment for raw materials.
Recently, a federal government economic stimulus measure was enacted. As a result of this effort, small businesses, like Rusty, will have their business income tax rate cut to zero percent for the next 10 years. The intent is to stimulate the formation of new small businesses throughout the country. Since this project is a last ditch effort to save the company, Rusty plans to let the project run for the 5 year forecast horizon. After that, he plans to dissolve the business and retire. Due to the desperation involved in this project, Rusty estimates that a 20% required rate of return is appropriate.
Rusty has asked for your help in addressing the following questions. Rusty would like to know what minimum quantity of the WindRunner 2.0 models will have to be sold in order to produce a zero NPV (i.e. the financial breakeven point). That is, he would like to know what level of sales volume would leave him indifferent between undertaking the project versus shelving the project
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