Scenario A farmer must decide whether to take protective action to limit damage to his grapefruit crop in the event that the overnight temperature falls to a level well below freezing . If the temperature drops too low he runs the risk of losing his entire crop , valued at $75 000 Based on the National Weather Service . the probability of such a temperature drop is 60 % . He can insulate his crop by spraying water on all the trees , which will cost $20 000 . This action might succeed in protecting the crop , with he following possible outcomes