Scenario: Twenty-five people have tested positive in the apartment complex so far and you assume that it is early enough in the outbreak that nobody has recovered. Approximately 7,500 people are currently housed at the complex. Due to the density of people in this area with many communal spaces, you are advised to use a contact rate of (3/5,000). There is a considerably high transfer rate of COVID-19 between individuals in related communities, so you assume a relatively high infectivity rate of 0.15. By now, we know that most individuals are no longer infectious after 10 days. The residents of the community do not intend to take precautionary measures to control the spread. Your task is to model the outbreak to provide estimates of the disease spread without control measures being taken into account.

Question: Assuming a completely susceptible population, calculate and interpret the R0 for this scenario. Will SARS-CoV-2 continue to spread in this community? Explain. (Please show your work)( R0= Nb/g (remember that transmission = contact x transfer)).

Question: Calculate the epidemic threshold of COVID-19 in this scenario. Interpret the value in the context of our current outbreak.

Epidemic Threshold (S=y/B)