Section A.

1) The Economy cannot be considered fully employed unless the measured unemployment rate is below 1%. Agree or disagree and explain your answer in a paragraph. What is the current actual u-rate for the US economy as of February Data for 2021?Is this unemployment rate below or above or equal to u-rate at full employment (usually called natural rate of unemployment or NAIRU)? What state of the economy do you consider from this u-rate for Feb 2021 (recession, depression or inflation?) and its sources?

2) A) Why would you expect the inflation rate to accelerate if the actual unemployment rate declined to a level lower than the "full employment" unemployment rate (NAIRU) and remained at that low level for a year or longer? Explain your answer in a few sentences.

.

B) Draw an AS/AD diagram illustrating your answer to part (A) and refer to the current state of the economy of the US to compare in this context. Be sure to label all lines and axes in your diagram clearly.

3) Suppose between Q1, 2020 and Q4, 2020 measured Output in the non- farm business sector increased by 3.6%. During this time period the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 3.7% and total hours worked in the nonfarm business sector increased by 3.8%.

What was the % rate of change in labor productivity over this period (Q1 2020 to Q4 2020)? Explain your answer briefly. (Hint: Labor productivity = Y/Labor hours; RGDP growth rate = Labor productivity growth plus and Labor Force Growth rate. No need to use u-rate changes for this question)

4. a. The Federal Government under Biden Administration is about to pass $1.9 Trillion Covid-19 Stimulus Relief Fund to rescue American and plans to distribute by Mar 15, 2021. Under this relief fund, almost 90% all households will receive $1,400 for all individuals filing and $2,800 for all households filing jointly. As part of the package also includes child support allowances for households, small businesses relief fund, covid-19 testing and vaccination roll outs. What would be the overall impact on AD of this third stimulus relief fund to recover the economy from severe recession caused by COVID-19 public health crisis and its effect on change in real GDP? Assume that the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) for all American consumers is 0.8 in February 2021. Estimate the maximum potential increase in real GDP in numerical values based on your knowledge on Keynesian economic model and policy effect, Explain your answer briefly as well in your own. Make sure you use your understanding of the concept of expenditure multiplier in estimating this problem.

4.b. Suppose instead of giving this $1.9 trillion package directly to individuals and small businesses, the legislative branch and the executive branch have decided to provide a tax break of the same amount for all federal tax filers for tax year 2020 that has to be filed by April 15, 2021. In another words, using the same criterion of distribution of $1.9 trillion package described in 4.a above, the government decides to give tax refund during tax filing for year 2020. Given this option, and assuming the same MPC of 0.80, estimate the maximum potential increase in GDP with this option and explain the comparison of your results you have come up with in Q4a above. Hint: Expenditure multiplier versus tax multiplier need to be understood to answer these two questions.

5. Use the macroeconomic data in the table below for the US economy for 2017 and 2018 to answer the questions followed.

Year

NGDP

in '000"

RGDP

In '000'

In 2009 prices

RGDP Growth Rate %

GDPD

Inflation Rate %

u-Rate

%

CPI

Inflation Rate %

2017

19,390.6

17,096.2

-

?

-

4.4

245.12

-

2018*

19,956.8

17,379.7

?

?

?

3.9

250.5

?

* Estimated data from 2017 data, but very close. Sources: www.bea.gov and www.bls.gov

5a. Estimate the values and fill out the boxes with Questions marks.

5b. Based on your estimated values from Q5a, briefly analyze the state of the US economy from year 2017 to 2018 and make a quick forecast for 2019 and 2020.

6. Use the following macroeconomic model structure to answer the questions followed from 6.1 to 6.8. Please note that you must show your work of estimations for these numerical multiple-choice questions for gradable credit. Without showing your works of estimation, your answers won't be credible for take-home exam.

C = 300 + 0.8Yd; C = consumption function; Yd (Y-T) = disposable income

I = 200; I = Investment

G = 400; G = Government expenditure

T = 200; T = Tax revenue

Also assume that Yf = Full employment GDP (Potential GDP) = 5,000

6.1. The equilibrium GDP level (income) is _________. Hint: Ye = C+I+G

a. 2,850

b. 3,700

c. 3,145

d. 3,800

6.2. At the equilibrium level of output, the aggregate consumption level is:

a. 3,100

b. 3,250

c. 3,400

d. 3,625

6.3. At the equilibrium level of output, the aggregate saving level is:

a. 550

b. 450

c. 400

d. 350

6.4. The MPC and MPS for the economy is respectively:

a. 0.9 and 0.1

b. 0.85 and 0.15

c. 0.75 and 0.25

d. 0.80 and 0.20

6.5. The expenditure multiplier for the economy is:

a. 10

b. 8

c. 5

d. 4

6.6. The tax multiplier for the economy is:

a. -3

b. -4

c. 4

d. 5

6.7. Given the value of full employment level of GDP above, the GDP gap is ______

a. 1,200

b.1,300

c. 1,400

d. 1,500

Hint: GDP gap is the difference between full employment (potential GDP) and existing equilibrium GDP)

6.8. The government spending needed to bridge the GDP gap you found in statement 8.7 above would be _____________

Hint: It is also called recessionary or inflationary gap depending on whether the economy is in state of recession or inflation.

a. 400

b. 350

c. 260

d. 250

7. Suppose the Payroll tax reduction for middle-income households has been extended in the amount of $500 billion for the remainder of 2021 to recover from COVID-19 crisis. Assuming the MPC for that income group of households is 0.8 and also assuming that other things stay the same, the increase in GDP under this proposed extension of tax break is expected to increase by (Y) _______

a. $2,500 billion

b. $2,000 billion

c. $1,000 billion

d. $1,500 billion

Hint: Need to use tax multiplier and keep it mind it is a negative tax..

Part B.

7. If a bond is quoted in the newspaper at 88.75, the current price of a $1,000 face value bond is: (Points : 1)

$75.00

$88.00

$88.75

$887.50

$1,000.00

11. Assume the beta for the stock market in general is 1.0 and the beta for World-Wide Television Productions is 2.4. If the stock market increases in value by 10 percent, what is the expected increase in value for the World-Wide Productions stock? (Points : 1)

12 percent

20 percent

24 percent

48 percent

14 percent

Question 14.14. A mutual fund in which no sales charge is paid by the individual investor is called a(n) ____________ fund. (Points : 1)

closed-end

open-end

load

no-load

convertible fund.

Question 15.15. Which one of the following statements is true? (Points : 1)

Global investments must be evaluated just like other investment alternatives.

Since global investments can only be bought in the U.S., there is no need to worry about currency exchange rates.

Today, very few investors are investing in stocks and bonds issued by foreign firms or in global mutual funds.

For most small investors, it makes more sense to invest in stocks and bonds issued by individual foreign firms, rather than in global mutual funds.

Evaluating global investments is easy because there is plenty of good information available.

16. Which of the following is a true statement? (Points : 1)

The first order of business for an investor is acquiring the money needed to begin investing.

To be useful, investment objectives must be very general.

Investment goals are the same for each individual.

Because investment objectives deal with the future, it is useless to plan more than five years in the future.

A long-term investment objective involves a time period of five years or less.