Question
Shell Inc has an investment in Angola and it fears that there is a 20% chance per year that over the upcoming two years the
Shell Inc has an investment in Angola and it fears that there is a 20% chance per year that over the upcoming two years the Angolan government will expropriate the plant. In case of expropriation, Shell will receive $100 million as compensation from the Angolan government. Shell does not receive annual cash flows from the investment yet, but it anticipates that the investment will yield $400 million in two years if the plan is not expropriated. Sonangol just made an offer to Shell to purchase the plant from them at $260 million effectively immediately. Currently, according to analysts at JP Morgan Chase, the cost of capital for Shell is 23%.
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