Simple Real Options Example

The worlds largest brewer, AB InBev, is considering expanding the scope of its delicious product offerings. In particular, it is considering acquiring a popular and publicly-traded Taiwanese brewer, Seriously Bad Lin (see pic below). Seriously Bad Lin (SBL) stock is currently trading at $17 per share (with 5m shares outstanding) and has no debt. Like the rest of Asia, Taiwan has highly developed and liquid derivatives markets and, as a result, it is easy to get market prices for any calls or puts on SBL stock.

In considering the potential acquisition of SBL, AB InBev must decide whether to act now or defer making its decision. For simplicity, assume that in the latter case, it would defer making the decision for (exactly) 1 year and would not have the opportunity to defer again (e.g., because competition would come in and acquire SBL at that point). If it chooses to acquire SBL, it knows that it can immediately double its firm value (by implementing cost efficiencies and marketing synergies as well as more effectively making SBL go global). However, doing so would require AB InBev to pay a 25% premium for SBL along with an up-front investment of $50m at the time of acquisition.

Given the assumptions above, how would you help AB InBev decide between acquiring now and deferring the acquisition decision by (exactly) 1 year? Given an optimal acquisition policy, what value would you assign to this strategic opportunity? [Remark: In determining the market prices of calls and puts on SBL stock, you may assume that the Black-Scholes formula holds. Further, assume a riskless rate of 4% and a volatility of 60%. The values for K and T will, of course, depend on the call and put contracts you choose to consider. In the real world, you wouldnt have to do this, you would just call up a market maker in the derivatives and get quotes for market prices.]