SIR Introduction Two years ago Top-Slice Company moved from just making golf balls to also producing oversized drivers. Top-Slice makes three different models: the Bomber, the Hook King, and the Sir Slice-A-Lot. As the names suggest, the last two clubs help cor- rect for golfers who either hook or slice the ball when driving. While Top-Slice is pleased with the growing sales for all three models (see the following tables), the numbers present Jacob Lee, the production manager, with a dilemma. Jacob knows that the current manufacturing work cell is capable of producing only 2,700 drivers a month, and total sales seem to be rapidly approaching that number. Jacob's staff has told him it will take at least three months to plan for and implement an expanded work cell. MONTH June July August September October November December January 2012 February March BOMBER HOOK KING SLICE-A-LOT 1,587 441 375 1,595 445 377 1,613 454 381 1,631 461 384 1,642 464 386 1,656 471 389 1,673 477 392 1,685 480 394 1,703 396 1,720 490 399 485 SIR BOMBER HOOK KING SLICE-A-LOT MONTH April 2010 May June July August September October November December January 2011 February March April 1,410 1,417 1,434 1,452 1,466 1,483 1,490 1,505 1,521 1,536 1,547 1,554 1,562 1,574 377 381 387 391 396 400 403 409 412 420 423 426 431 437 343 344 346 349 350 352 354 357 359 363 365 367 369 371 Questions 1. Develop a quantitative forecast model for Jacob. Which modeling technique did you choose, and why? What are the assumptions behind your model? 2. According to your model, when will Top-Slice need to have the expanded work cell up and running? What are the implications for when Jacob should start the expan- sion effort? 3. Now suppose that over lunch the marketing vice president says to Jacob: We're feeling a lot of heat from Chinese manufacturers who are offering very similar clubs to ours, but at significantly lower prices. The legal department is working on a patent in- fringement case, but if we can't block these clubs from enter- ing the market, I expect to see our sales flatten, and maybe even fall, over the rest of the year. What questions should Jacob ask? How would the answers to these questions affect the forecast? Does it still make sense to use quantitative forecasting under these cir- cumstances? Why? May