Question
Siri Moon, portfolio manager, at Investment Management, Ltd., is conducting a training session with Alexa Sun, a junior analyst in the fixed income department. Siri
Siri Moon, portfolio manager, at Investment Management, Ltd., is conducting a training session with Alexa Sun, a junior analyst in the fixed income department. Siri wants to explain to Alexa the arbitrage-free valuation framework used by the firm. Siri presents Exhibit 1, showing a fictitious bond being traded on three exchanges, and asks Alexa to identify the arbitrage opportunity of the bond. Alexa agrees to ignore transaction costs in her analysis.
Eurex | NYSE Euronext | Frankfurt | |
Price | EUD 103.7956 | EUD 103.7815 | EDU 103.7565 |
Siri shows Alexa some exhibits that were part of a recent presentation. Exhibit 3 presents most of the data of a binomial log-normal interest rate tree fit to the yield curve shown in Exhibit 2. Exhibit 4 presents most of the data of the implied values for a four-year, option-free, annual pay bond with a 2.5% coupon based on the information in Exhibit 3.
One-Year | Two-Year | Three-Year |
1.25% | 1.50% | 1.70% |
Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
1.2500% | 1.8229% | 1.8281% | 2.6241% | Node 4-1 |
1.4925% | Node 2-2 | Node 3-2 | 4.2008% | |
1.2254% | 1.7590% | 3.4393% | ||
Node 3-4 | 2.8159% | |||
Node 4-5 |
Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
Node 0-0 | 104.2876 | 103.2695 | 102.3791 | 102.5000 |
Node 1-2 | 104.0168 | 102.8442 | 102.5000 | |
104.6349 | 103.2282 | 102.5000 | ||
103.5448 | 102.5000 | |||
102.5000 |
Siri asks about the missing data in Exhibits 3 and 4 and directs Alexa to complete the following tasks related to those exhibits:
- Task 1: Test that the binomial interest tree has been properly calibrated to be arbitrage-free.
- Task 2: Develop a spreadsheet model to calculate path-wise valuation. To test the accuracy of the spreadsheet, use the data in Exhibit 3 and calculate the value of the bond if it takes a path of lowest rates in Year 1 and Year 2 and the second-lowest rate in Year 3.
- Task 3: Identify a type of bond where the Monte Carlo calibration method should be used in place of the binomial interest rate method.
- Task 4: Update Exhibit 3 to reflect the current volatility, which is now 15%.
Question 1: Based on Exhibit 1, the best action that an investor should take to profit from the arbitrage opportunity is to (note: select buy or sell) on (note: select Eurex, Euronext, or Frankfurt), (note: select buy or sell) on (Note: select Eurex, Euronext, or Frankfurt) .
Question 2: Fill in blanks in Exhibit 3 and 4. (Note: Round up to the nearest ten thousandths: e.g. 102.51236 => 102.5124.)
- The Interest rate in Node 2-2 is %.
- The Interest rate in Node 3-2 is %.
- The Interest rate in Node 3-4 is %.
- The Interest rate in Node 4-1 is %.
- The Interest rate in Node 4-5 is %.
- The price of the bond in Node 0-0 is .
- The value in Node 1-2 is .
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