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Siri Moon, portfolio manager, at Investment Management, Ltd., is conducting a training session with Alexa Sun, a junior analyst in the fixed income department. Siri

Siri Moon, portfolio manager, at Investment Management, Ltd., is conducting a training session with Alexa Sun, a junior analyst in the fixed income department. Siri wants to explain to Alexa the arbitrage-free valuation framework used by the firm. Siri presents Exhibit 1, showing a fictitious bond being traded on three exchanges, and asks Alexa to identify the arbitrage opportunity of the bond. Alexa agrees to ignore transaction costs in her analysis.

Eurex NYSE Euronext Frankfurt
Price EUD 103.7956 EUD 103.7815 EDU 103.7565

Siri shows Alexa some exhibits that were part of a recent presentation. Exhibit 3 presents most of the data of a binomial log-normal interest rate tree fit to the yield curve shown in Exhibit 2. Exhibit 4 presents most of the data of the implied values for a four-year, option-free, annual pay bond with a 2.5% coupon based on the information in Exhibit 3.

One-Year Two-Year Three-Year
1.25% 1.50% 1.70%

Current Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1.2500% 1.8229% 1.8281% 2.6241% Node 4-1
1.4925% Node 2-2 Node 3-2 4.2008%
1.2254% 1.7590% 3.4393%
Node 3-4 2.8159%
Node 4-5

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Node 0-0 104.2876 103.2695 102.3791 102.5000
Node 1-2 104.0168 102.8442 102.5000
104.6349 103.2282 102.5000
103.5448 102.5000
102.5000

Siri asks about the missing data in Exhibits 3 and 4 and directs Alexa to complete the following tasks related to those exhibits:

  • Task 1: Test that the binomial interest tree has been properly calibrated to be arbitrage-free.
  • Task 2: Develop a spreadsheet model to calculate path-wise valuation. To test the accuracy of the spreadsheet, use the data in Exhibit 3 and calculate the value of the bond if it takes a path of lowest rates in Year 1 and Year 2 and the second-lowest rate in Year 3.
  • Task 3: Identify a type of bond where the Monte Carlo calibration method should be used in place of the binomial interest rate method.
  • Task 4: Update Exhibit 3 to reflect the current volatility, which is now 15%.

Question 1: Based on Exhibit 1, the best action that an investor should take to profit from the arbitrage opportunity is to (note: select buy or sell) on (note: select Eurex, Euronext, or Frankfurt), (note: select buy or sell) on (Note: select Eurex, Euronext, or Frankfurt) .

Question 2: Fill in blanks in Exhibit 3 and 4. (Note: Round up to the nearest ten thousandths: e.g. 102.51236 => 102.5124.)

  • The Interest rate in Node 2-2 is %.
  • The Interest rate in Node 3-2 is %.
  • The Interest rate in Node 3-4 is %.
  • The Interest rate in Node 4-1 is %.
  • The Interest rate in Node 4-5 is %.
  • The price of the bond in Node 0-0 is .
  • The value in Node 1-2 is .

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