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solve Q2 in 2 hours thanks After preparing and exploring the time series data of the monthly stock prices of company B in the past
solve Q2 in 2 hours thanks
After preparing and exploring the time series data of the monthly stock prices of company B in the past 5 years in Question 1, we can now forecast the stock prices in the next 12 months using SAS code (a) Apply the moving average method to the stock price time series prepared in Question 1(a) to forecast the stock prices in the next 12 months. Choose the most appropriate moving average order and discuss the reasons of your choice in less than 400 words. (Note: you can use Excel to calculate the MAPE of the models if it is necessary since PROC EXPAND and PROC ARIMA do not provide this statistic.) (b) Construct an exponential smoothing model for the stock price time series prepared in Question 1(a) to forecast its values in the next 12 months. Choose the most appropriate exponential smoothing model and discuss the reasons of your choice in less than 400 words. (Note: you do not need Excel to calculate the MAPE of the models since PROC ESM does provide this statistic.) The monthly stock prices of company B from November 2017 to October 2022 are saved in the text file "StockPriceB_Raw.csv". You are assigned by your consultancy firm to analyse the data and to forecast the prices in the next 12 months. (a) Choose an appropriate column of the dataset and use Excel to prepare it as a univariate time series for smoothing and forecasting in 10 steps or less. Report your data preparation steps (in less than 400 words) along with relevant in-text screenshots (maximum height: 7cm. Use "Format Graphic" function to regulate the size of your graphs) to illustrate the process. (b) Examine the prepared time series from (a) on the following aspects: (i) Descriptive statistics such as mean, variance, autocorrelation, etc. (ii) Graphical exploration (e.g., line plots, histograms, etc.) (iii) Time series decomposition plots Discuss your data exploration tasks (in less than 400 words) along with in-text screenshots (maximum height: 7cm. Use "Format Graphic" function to regulate the size of your graphs) to illustrate the process. Provide the SAS code of your data exploration as well. Note that the SAS code is excluded from the word countStep by Step Solution
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