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SOLVES ONLY IN EXCEL SHEET A company designed a new integrated circuit that will allow you to enter, if you wish, the world of microcomputers.
SOLVES ONLY IN EXCEL SHEET A company designed a new integrated circuit that will allow you to enter, if you wish, the world of microcomputers. Otherwise, you can sell your rights for $15 million pesos. If you choose to build computers, the profitability of this project depends on the company's ability to market them within the first year. You have enough access to retail distributors to guarantee the sale of 10,000 of them. On the other hand, if you are successful you can sell up to 100,000 machines. For analysis purposes, these two levels of sales are taken as two possible outcomes of computer sales. The cost of installing the production line is $6 million pesos. The difference between the sale price and the variable cost of each computer is $600 pesos. A) Identify the actions. the states of nature, and the payoff matrix. b. With the expected value tool, use algebra to find the point of indifference. Explain the meaning of this point. c. Assuming that both probabilities of the two sales levels are equal to 0.5, which action alternative should be chosen? 2. Observe the compensation table in which the entries are in net income in pesos. It assumes that this is a decision without any knowledge of the states of nature. a. What is the optimal decision, using the Laplace criterion? b. What is the optimal decision, using the maximin criterion? c. What is the optimal decision, using the maximax criterion? d. Generate a table of retributions in which the entries are regret. e. What is the optimal decision, using the minimax regret criterion? F. Look again at the pay table. Assume that the following probabilities are specified for states of nature: P(1)D.1, F'(2) 0.4, P(3) 0.3, F'(4) 0.2 f1. Find the decision that maximizes the expected net return in dollars. f2. Find the decision that minimizes the expected regret. TABLA 10.1 3 ESTADO DE LA NATURALEZA DECISION 1 2 3 4 l 35 22 25 I2 '2 27 25 2t) 18 3 22 25 25 28 h 20 25 28 3-3
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