South Shore Construction builds permanent docks and seawalls along the southern shore of Long Island, New York. Although the firm has been in business only five years, revenue has increased from $311,000 in the first year of operation to $1,082,000 in the mo recent year. The following data show the quarterly sales revenue in thousands of dollars. a. Construct a time series plot. 1. Time Series Value 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 [50 1 2 5 7 8 L-50 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Time Period (t) Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 1 28 36 81 95 181 2 93 131 148 200 272 3 173 251 319 393 445 4 17 29 48 87 184 2. i 3. Time Series Value 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 -50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Time Series Value 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Time 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Period (t) 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 [50 Time Period (t) Time Series Value 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 W 1 2 8 9 L-50 Select your answer - What type of pattern exists in the data? 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Time Period (t) There appears to be a seasonal pattern in the data and perhaps a Select your answer - b. Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for any seasonal effects in the data: Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise. Round your answers thousands of dollars) to whole number. Revenue = |+| Qtrl + Qtr2 + Qtr3 Based only on the seasonal effects in the data, compute estimates of quarterly sales for year 6. Round your answers to whole number. Quarter 1 forecast $ thousands Quarter 2 forecast $ thousands Quarter 3 forecast Quarter 4 forecast $ $ thousands thousands c. Let Period = 1 to refer to the observation in quarter 1 of year 1; Period = 2 to refer to the observation in quarter 2 of year 1; . . . and Period = 20 to refer to the observation in quarter 4 of year 3. Using the dummy variables defined in part (b) and Period, develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. Round your answers (in thousands of dollars) to whole number. Enter negative value as negative number. The regression equation is: Revenue = + Qtrl + Qtr2 + Qtr3 + Period Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute estimates of quarterly sales for year 6. Round your answers to whole number. Quarter 1 forecast $ thousands Quarter 2 forecast Quarter 3 forecast Quarter 4 forecast $ thousands $ thousands $ thousands Hudson Marine provides boats sales, service, and maintenance. Boat trailers are one of its top sales items. Suppose the quarterly sales values for the seven years of historical data are as follows. Do not round intermediate calculations. Total Yearly Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Sales 1 6 17 9 2 12 17 13 3 13 24 24 4 19 29 25 5 20 33 27 6 26 38 31 NON 2 34 51 10 71 16 89 19 99 22 117 7 29 39 35 25 128 a. Compute the centered moving average values (first find Four-Quarter Moving Average) for this time series (to 3 decimals). Centered Moving t Sales 1 6 2 17 3 9 4 2 5 12 6 17 7 13 8 9 9 13 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 222 223 222 22 28 18 38 22 39 35 25 8 33 Average b. Choose a time series plot that also shows the centered moving average and original time series on the same graph. Discuss the differences between the original time series plot and the centered moving average time series. 1 Sales 35 30 25 20 15- 10. 5 JAGAAAA 2 3 Sales 35 30- 25 20 15 10 5: Sales 35 30- 25 Sales 10 15 20 25 Year CMA AAAAPA Sales 10 15 20 CMA 25 Year AAAAAAA 20- 15 -10 5: Sales 10 15 20 CMA 25 Year 4 Sales 35 30 25 20 15 10 AAAP 5 10 15 20 25 Year Sales CMA Select your answer- The centered moving average values - Select your answer - c. Compute the seasonal indexes for the four quarters (to 3 decimals). Quarter Adjusted Seasonal Index 1 2 3 d. When does Hudson Marine experience the largest seasonal effect? Hudson Marine experiences the largest seasonal increase in quarter Does this result seem reasonable? This - Select your answer - . The largest seasonal effect is the seasonal decrease in quarter