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STANZ is the largest manufacturer of OEM auto parts in Asia. Asia auto parts industry is already mature, characterized by a stable growth rate of
STANZ is the largest manufacturer of OEM auto parts in Asia. Asia auto parts industry is already mature, characterized by a stable growth rate of 3% per annum during the past five years. From next year and going forward, STANZ expect no growth in its sales due to changing policy to diversify production base of vehicle's makers. From next year, STANZ expects its annual sales of THB2 billion, which is equal to the sales this year. STANZ expects its profit margin next year of 5.5% and will remain stable at this level. Its working capital policy next year will remain the same as this year. Its capital structure in the current year comprises 60% debt 40% equity. Dividend payout ratio in the current year is 50%. STANZ's cost of debt before tax is 3.75%, cost of equity is 10%, and corporate tax rate is 20%. STANZ has a total number of shares of 120mn shares. Ariya, an analyst, expects STANZ to report no capital expenditure next year due to the decline in sales growth to zero. She also expects that the decline in sales growth to zero will result in a significant decline in STANZ's free cash flows and dividend payout ratio next year. Based on an estimated dividend payout ratio of 30%, Ariya estimates STANZ's fair value at the end of next year of THB2.75 per share. Do you agree with each point that Ariya comments? What is your fair value estimation for STANZ at the end of next year? Give reasons to support each point that you agree or disagree. Provide your calculation of STANZ's fair value (calculate in three decimal points)
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