STAT2112.13 Quiz # 7 NAME:____________________GWID:G_________________ Fall 2016 sba (Take Home) -, Due Thursday (Dec. 8) 1. A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. Which one of the three five at is the mean absolute deviation? (2pts) Actual 10 8 10 6 9 Forecast 11 10 8 6 8 . . Which one of the three popular measures of forecast accuracy gives you the smallest value?. Show all your work, Problem 2: OPEC crude oil imports. The data on OPEC oil (in barrels) imported into the United States for the years 2006-2010 is provided in table below. Use this data and answer the questions in problem 14.28 of the text book. (4 pts) Year t 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 2 3 4 5 Imports, Yt 1,745 1,969 1,984 1,594 1,654 Source: United States Census Bureau. Problem 3. Annual retirement assets (in billions of dollars) for two fund types from 2006 through 2010 are given in the table below. Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 IRA 3,652 4,207 4,784 3,759 4,230 401(k) 2,396 2,768 2,982 2,275 2,754 a. Compute simple indexes for each of the two time series using 2006 as the base period.1pt b. Construct a time series plot for IRA index ONLY. 1 pt c. Use the Exponential smoothing and Holt's trend with coefficients of w=0.5 and =0.6 to forecast the assets in the IRA account for the year 2015. 2 pts