State Recession 40% Probability Expected Return of X Expected Return of Y in each state 15% in each state Status Quo 25% 25% Boom 35% 15% 10% -25% 25% Days' Sales in Inventory Days' Sales in Receivables 2011 2012 2013 2014 81 69 62 46 20 46 119 144 Accounts payable period Cash cycle in days 84 90 95 91 17 25 85 98