Statistics 251 Section 04, Fall 2015 Course Project Grading Rubric The goal of the project is for you to have the opportunity to show me that you have learned about the concepts and techniques of statistics covered in STAT 251 using a real-world example. You have the opportunity to show how much you learned by meeting the requirements listed below. Objectives: Show that you understand and can translate a question (curiosity) into a question about a parameter(s) (Chapters 1, 9 and others) by translating a question that you are interested in into one that can be answered using Stat 251 course material. Show that you understand the relationships between populations, parameters, samples and statistics (Chapters 1, 2, 10 and others) by identifying the population, parameters, samples and statistics that apply to the question you are interested in. Show that you can identify variables as quantitative or categorical, that you can identify response and predictor variables if appropriate, and that you can correctly describe and interpret the variables using both graphics and numerical summaries (Chapters 2, 3, 4) by identifying the variables in your project as categorical, quantitative and as predictor or response variables if appropriate. Show that you understand the types of variables that we cover in class. Show that you have working knowledge about graphical and numerical summaries, including which graphs and summaries are appropriate for the data you have collected. Show that you understand the concepts of data collection, using either sampling methods or experimental design (Chapters 5 and 6) by explaining the data collection plan that will ensure that your results apply to the population of interest as described earlier. (Note: you will also have an additional section in project that describes how you actually collect your data as in most cases you will not have time or resources to collect it as first described). Show that you understand how to make inferences about your population of interest based on the data you have collected by using either confidence intervals or hypothesis tests or both. Show that you know which confidence interval and/or hypothesis test is appropriate for the parameter you chose, how to use it, and how to interpret it. Show that you have the ability to interpret your results back into the context of the question asked in the introduction. All projects must be typed* and double spaced. If they are not typed and double spaced, they will not be graded. *With the exception of your calculations of descriptive statistics and analysis if you are doing them by hand. See the full description in the following sections. The project will be graded as follows: 1. Introduction and Research Questions (50 points): a. The specific population that you are interested in b. The specific question you are asking, both in written text and in statistical terms c. The specific parameters you are interested in with your research question, which are at least one of (you will mostly likely only have one of these parameters in your project). i. One proportion (examples are in Chapter 2) ii. One mean (examples are in Chapter 2) iii. Difference between two proportions (Chapters 9, 10, 12) iv. Mean difference (Chapters 9, 11, 13) v. Difference between two means (Chapters 9, 11, 13) vi. Relationship between two quantitative variables (Chapters 3 and 14) vii. Relationship between two categorical variables (Chapter 4) viii. Difference between more than two means (Chapter 16) d. You will also want to include some background about your question such as why you are curious about it, why having the answer to the question is beneficial (this can range from satisfying your own curiosity to saving the worldthe only wrong answer here is nothing.) 2. Data Collection Methods (100 points): a. Part 1: i. Describe your project as either an observational study or an experiment ii. Explain why the type of study (either an observational study or an experiment) you are using is best for your question. iii. Explain in detail exactly how to implement your sampling design if you are doing an observational study (Chapter 5), or experimental design if you are doing an experiment (Chapter 6) in clear enough terms that someone else can do it for you. iv. Explain why the sampling/experimental design you have chosen is best for your project b. Part 2: Describe how you actually collected your data i. Include some text explanations/description of anything interesting that arose in your data collection (data collection almost never goes exactly as planneddescribe what happened). c. Make sure that you have written your data collection methods in such a way that another Stat 251 student would be able to repeat your process. 3. Analysis and Results (100 points): Graphically and numerically describe your data, and make inferences about your population based on your data: a. Use the appropriate graphical displays to describe your data. You will use material in Chapter 2 to display the individual variables, in Chapter 3 to describe the relationship between two quantitative variables, and in Chapter 4 to describe the relationship between two categorical variables. b. Use the corresponding numerical summaries from Chapters 2, 3 or 4 to describe the data, and explain what the numerical summaries mean. Also explain why you used the numerical summaries that you have used. c. Analyze your data with either confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, or both, using what you learned in Chapters 4, 12, 13, 14 or 16. Explain why you used the confidence interval and/or hypothesis that you chose. d. Include your work for the hypothesis test and/or confidence interval. You can do these by hand or using software. If you are using software, include both the script and the results of the analysis. If you are doing these by hand, you can submit your handwritten work as long as it is legible. e. Make sure that you include all of the steps for your analysis. f. Explain the results of the confidence intervals/hypothesis tests using plain English. 4. Conclusion (50 points): this section is where you explain the results found in Section 3, in the context of the original question that you asked in the introduction. Explain this so that someone not at all acquainted with our class can understand. Also mention any limitations that you found. 5. Describe what you learned about the process of statistical analysis from the formation of a research question to the conclusion and implications (50 points)\" a. You do not need to list something that you've learned from every single section. b. \"What you learned\" should include things that enhance your understanding of the process (similar to what you listed that you learned about probability and data collection from the \"Let's Make a Deal\" game. 6. Peer Review (50 points): a. Provide your partner with two copies of the grading rubric. b. Ask your partner to carefully read through your project and evaluate it as if your partner is grading it. Have your partner fill out the rubric twice. c. Write a short summary of the sections that you will adjust to improve your paper based on the peer review. d. Include one of the two rubrics that your partner filled out for you. e. You will do the same type of review for your partner, who will provide you with two copies of the rubric. f. Include your copy of your completed rubric for your partner's project. Note: Extra Credit points may be added for truly exceptional projects (those that exceed the expectations outlined above) at Instructor discretion. Note: If you are not satisfied with your score on any of the interim section of the Final Project, you may use my comments on your graded assignment and I will adjust the grade as appropriate when I grade the final project IF AND ONLY IF you also include a note for me that notifies me that you've adjusted your previous assignment and tell me how you adjusted it. Turn this in as one complete document that includes Sections 1 - 6 as described above by April 29, 2016. Submit your project on our Course Page on BBLearn. Note: please feel free to visit the SAC for assistance with the analysis. Also please feel free to visit the Writing Center for assistance with putting your project together. Stat 251 Project Rubric Introduction Population clearly identified? Question about population in words? Question about population in symbols? Population parameters and sample estimates clearly identified? Objective/background about why the question is interesting to you. Points Total Possible 10 10 10 10 10 50 Data Collection Methods Observational or Experiment Explanation as to why it's the best to answer your question Explanation of sampling design or experiment Explanation of why the sampling plan or experimental design is best for your project Describe how you actually collected your data Identify any interesting things that you encountered as you collected your data. Total 10 10 25 15 25 15 100 Analysis and Results Graphical description(s) appropriate to variables observed? Graphic(s) is correctly constructed? Interpretation of graphic(s) is correct? Numerical description(s) appropriate to variables observed? Numerical description(s) is correctly calculated? Interpretation of numerical(s) description is correct? Analysis method is correct for the variables and question asked? Analysis method is correctly calculated? Explanation of why the analysis method is correct for the variables and question. Explanation of the results of the confidence interval using plain English Total 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 100 Conclusion Make conclusion(s) about your question based on the results of your analysis Conclusion is understandable to a layperson Limitations of conclusion based on data collection or analysis Total 30 10 10 50 Total 50 Total 25 25 50 What you learned about the process of statistics Peer Review Your partner's review of your project Your review of your partner's project Extra Credit Total TOTAL PROJECT GRADE 400 1 About the final project: The goal of the project is for you to demonstrate to me and to Amanda that you have learned enough about the material covered in Stat 251 to demonstrate that knowledge using data that you are actually interested in (instead of more homework problems). It is intended to be a sequence of \"homework\" problems that are used to answer one larger question. It is NOT intended to be a thesis! You will turn in one paper that includes your entire process and documentation, however. You will need to have a research question (statistics speak for some aspect of something that you are curious about). You will need to have data so that you can use methods and tools from STAT 251 to use the data to gain insight into your question. Chapters 5 and 6 will cover some of the ways that data can be collected so that it represents the population of interest. You will demonstrate that you have learned how to visually and numerically describe data, using your own variables and what we have learned in Chapters 2 and 3, and will learn in Chapter 4. You will need to make an inference(s) about your population based on your analyses. We will learn an introductory set of analysis and inferences techniques in Chapters 10 - 16. You will use one or more of those techniques to make the inferences. Finally, you will arrive at an answer to your question. It might not be the answer you wanted, but you will have an answer. 2 Part 1 of the project: 1. Think about a question that you are interested or curious about. 2. Do your best to put the question into the context of a question that can be answered using sample statistics calculated from data. a. Note: this is usually the hardest part of the project. Don't be afraid to seek help from me, from Amanda, from the TA's at the SAC. This is also usually the hardest part of working with a client, too! 3. The first assigned part of the project is for you to a. Identify a question(s) that you are curious about b. Tackle the translation part: turning the question you're curious about into a question that can be answered using data from either categorical or quantitative variables. c. List the variables that you would collect data from, and whether the variable is categorical or quantitative. Note that the types of questions that we will be able to answer in Stat 251 are of the type that 1. We can use visual and numerical descriptions to describe a single variable a. Categorical b. Quantitative 2. We can use visual and numerical descriptions to compare two or more groups to each other, using the visual and numerical descriptions of single variables in each group. This is done with one categorical variable (the groups) and one quantitative variable (the response variable). 3. We can use the relationship between two quantitative variables to answer questions about how the variables relate to each other. 4. We can use the relationship between two categorical variables to answer questions about how the variables relate to each other. 3 The first assignment for the project is as follows: 1. Identify a topic(s) that you are curious about. 2. Identify a question(s) that you'd like to have more information on. 3. Identify (4) different questions that we can answer with analysis of sample data. a. The first question should be about a description of variable, and the variable can be either categorical or quantitative. Make sure that you identify what type of variable you will use to answer the question. b. The second question should be about comparing distributions of variables between 2 - 5 groups. Make sure that you identify what the groups that you'd like to compare are as well as the variable that you measure on observations of each group. c. The third question will be one that you can answer by calculating the regression line equation (examining the relationship between two quantitative variables). Identify the quantitative variables as well as which is the predictor and which is the response. d. The fourth question should be one that you can answer by examining the relationship between two categorical variables. We will cover this in Chapter 4, next week. Again, identify the predictor and the response variables. This is worth 50 points (5 each for items 1 and 2, and 10 each for items a - d in item 3. It is due Monday, February 15 (yes, I know this is a holiday). 4 Running head: RESEARCH PROJECT 1 Topic: Research Project Name: Institution: Tutor: Date of Submission: RESEARCH PROJECT 2 The Relationship between Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty Project Overview The relationship that exists between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty is crucial in determining how participants in the market relate to each other. A significant positive correlation exists between customer loyalty and customer satisfaction. However, it is critical to understand that loyalty is hard to come across. Therefore, it becomes difficult to attain the aims of the company as customers are not satisfied. Customers form the core of the entire banking industry. The focus of many financial institutions has been on customer satisfaction. Even though customers are attracted to service quality, customer loyalty arises when customers are satisfied. It has therefore become difficult to meet the demands of customers. Research question The research question of the project seeks to know if customers are satisfied with the way services are delivered to them and does this lead to customer loyalty. A questionnaire is used to collect data. In ensuring that the respondents can read the questionnaire and give feedback, they are to be written in English. The questionnaire has four parts. The beginning section will ask relevant personal information like age, nationality, gender, income, and educational level. The second part will entail perceptions that customers have regarding service delivery. The third section will have the question that gauges customer satisfaction. The final part will ask questions that measure behavioural intentions and how loyalty arises. RESEARCH PROJECT 3 Observational Study An observational study is carried out to gather data related to the relationship that exists between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. An observational study ensures that only what is seen or heard is collected (Lapan, Quartaroli & Riemer, 2012). Researchers are not allowed to interfere or make any alterations in any way. The study conducted entails a survey that asks customers how satisfied they are with the services provided. In an observational study, information given must be evidence in the study. Due to this, observational studies include response and explanatory variables. Since no alterations are allowed, there cannot be any dependent or independent variables. Data Collection Methods An observation study conducted employed a simple random sample strategy in the sampling process. Clients served at the Lloyd's Bank formed the sample. The sample which was carefully selected provided data that was representative of the population. Sampling size During the sampling process, only saturation will indicate the desired outcome is achieved. In this study, the number of respondents was twenty-five. Some clients were off duty while others were on holiday. Purposive sampling used allowed the researchers to deliberately chose who to include in the research. RESEARCH PROJECT 4 Advantages of a Sampling Plan over an Experimental design Researchers select sampling for its periodic quality and simplicity. The researcher randomly picks an item from the population until the nth item. Procedures of a sampling can be carried out manually which makes sampling advantageously over experiments. Sampling techniques line systematic sampling give the researcher assurance that the sample is evenly distributed making it representative of the population (Sedgwick, 2015). In real experiments, the design adopted directly affects the variables which are not the case with sampling. Only proper blocking, randomization and replication pave the way for successful experimentation. Thus, the whole experimentation process complex compared to the relatively straightforward and manual sampling process. 5 RESEARCH PROJECT References Lapan, S., Quartaroli, M., & Riemer, F. (2012). Qualitative research. San Francisco: JosseyBass. Sedgwick, P. (2015). Multistage sampling. BMJ, h4155. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h4155