Step 1: Describe a specific forecasting need in your organization.

Step 2: Use the provided table below to analyze the requirements of the forecasting need you have.

Step 3: Identify the best matching forecasting methodology to your situation and describe how it would be executed.

In Step 2, the analysis will be based on the table shown on pages 4 and 5 of the article. This table lists several questions about the nature of the forecasting situation, such as the urgency, detail required, and costs factors, and provides an overview of how well various forecasting methodologies will fit those requirements. For example, some forecasting methods cost more than others and depending on your financial resources, some of them may not be suitable. The same holds true with the math skills available or the need for high accuracy. So, understand what each category is referring to, fill in the information, and follow the table to see which methodology is recommended for your specific case. You are learning how to analyze your situation so as to pick the best approach.

Category	Dimension	Questions	Answer to the Questions
Time	Span	Is the forecast period a present, short/medium, or long-term projection?
	Urgency	Is the forecast needed immediately?
	Frequency	Are frequent forecast updates needed?
Resource	Math skills	Are quantitative skills limited?
	Computer	Are computer capabilities limited?
	Financial	Are only limited financial resources available?
Input	Antecedent	Are only limited past data available?
	Variability	Does the primary series fluctuate substantially?
	Internal consistency	Are significant changes in management decisions expected?
	External consistency	Are significant environmental changes expected?
	External stability	Are significant shifts expected among variable relationships?
Output	Detail	Are component forecasts required?
	Accuracy	Is a high level of accuracy critical?
	Capability for reflecting direction changes	Should turning points be reflected properly?
	Capability for detecting direction changes	Should turning points be identified early?
	Form	Is an internal or probabilistic forecast critical?

Recommendations

This is where you describe your selection and demonstrate your understanding, so answer all questions fully.

Answer the following:

1. Which forecasting methodology listed in the article is the best match to your situation?
2. In which categories is the methodology showing a good fit (in other words, why did you select this methodology)?
3. In which categories does this methodology show a weak fit?
4. Describe how this forecast will be executed: Who will do it, where will the data come from, how frequently will it be repeated, and how will the results be used?