Stock A is currently traded at $60. Each year, the stock price can either go up by 10% or drop by 10%. Your manager asks you to price an European call option with a strike price of $55 and a maturity of two years from now. The YTM of a one-year zero Treasury bond is 2% and the forward rate from year one to year two is 3%.

Suppose the discount rate you use is 5% for the second period, what is the risk neutral probability for stock price to reach $48.6 on maturity date? Assume that you are computing the probability as of now.