Strategic Decision Making with Data Analytics

Question : Probability

You are a cell service provider and you are currently offering two brands of cell phone that will work on your network.Customers can choose from a SunPhone, manufactured by SunTech Inc., or they can have a MoonPhone manufactured by ReflectiveTech Inc..

The SunPhone costs $12 Million BAHT and the MoonPhone costs $9 Million BAHT.

After examining the patterns of your customers, you know that the probability of a customer choosing a SunPhone is about 80%, and the probability of a new customer selecting a MoonPhone is about 20%.

You have partnered with a software development company that provides applications for the phones on your network called ShopAround.ShopAround helps them find local businesses to visit.Your customers can choose whether or not to install the ShopAround software and it is free of charge.

If your customers have purchased a SunPhone, there is a 40% chance that they will install the ShopAround application.

If your customers have purchased a MoonPhone, there is a 60% chance that they will install the ShopAround application.

One day, the software development company calls you and says that there is a bug in their software that will harm MoonPhone users.The software development company wants to know how many of the users of the ShopAround application have MoonPhones on your network.

What is the probability that a customer who has installed the ShopAround application is using a MoonPhone? (these are the customers who are at risk of damage to their phones)