student number 4

Part A- Problems - Please attempt all questions Q1) A specialized electronic store sells products ranging from laptops to digital cameras. One of their high selling products is 22mm lens for digital cameras. Demand for 22mm lens in the last 8 years are as follows: The supply chain manager thinks that demand is stable over the years and is considering two methods to forecast the demand for 2021 , i.e., (i) 2 years moving average and (ii) exponential smoothing with smoothing constant =0.7 to forecast the demand. For exponential smoothing methods, he would start this method with smoothed value S2016=480+10 last two digits of your student number for 2016 . a) Fill the demand table using the last two digits of your student number. For example, if your student number is BBA190012, last two digit is 12 and the demand for 2017 is D2017=480+1012=600. ( 5 points) b) What are the forecasts for 2019,2020 and 2021 according to 2 years moving average? (5 points) c) What are the forecasts for 2019,2020 and 2021 according to exponential smoothing? (5 points) d) Compare the forecasts in (b), (c) and (d) using Bias, MAD and MAPE, and indicate which forecasting method is the most accurate. ( 7 points)