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SUBJECT of assignment: Data Analysis: Term Structure of Interest Rates The subject of this exercise is learning about interest rate data and data sources. In

SUBJECT of assignment: Data Analysis: Term Structure of Interest Rates

The subject of this exercise is learning about interest rate data and data sources. In chapter 2 you learned about the term structure of interest rates, the yield curve for securities with different maturities (but similar risk profiles). In this exercise, you retrieve data on yield curves, observe the trends in rates and consider the slope of the curve.

This assignment requires you to research official data on interest rates, chart the data and analyze the results. The analysis may require you to perform additional calculations on the data, or create comparisons of individual data series on the data, based on your objectives of your analysis.

Clearly state the objectives of the data analysis at the beginning of the paper. Do not stray away from your objectives and later present data in an unrelated fashion.

These are the questions I need help with, mainly number #3, #4, and #5. I need help understanding what it means, and how to solve them. I don't have much background in this course, so I am stuck and not quite understanding what to do or what to look for.

Analysis

Apply the learning in the 2 weeks of the course to see what the data demonstrates. Here are some examples you can consider.

  1. Have US interest rates become negative?
  2. How close have US rates approached zero?
  3. Have rates reversed themselves?
  4. What do the spreads between Treasuries and Corporates, or between High Quality corporate rates and Baa rates inform us about risk premiums, risk premium, expectations of inflation ...?
  5. Covid experience: Focus on the 2020 detailed data to see the behavior of rates in 2020, especially first and second quarter, versus the latest data?
  6. Focus on the behavior of rates and spreads in 2007/2008 during the great recession?

Samples of data series you can work with.

  • Trends in a specific interest rates (and/or spreads)
  • Trends in a interest rates (and/or spreads) based on maturity within the same credit risk category,
  • Trends in rate spreads across credit risk categories
  • Trends in the data within a specific time period.

When analyzing trends, make sure to include the recession of 2007/08 and the current situation. Therefore, consider the range 2005 to present. Depending on your analysis you can consider monthly and quarterly data that helps you support the analysis.

Sources of Data

The best source for interest rate data is Federal Reserve Economic Data Series (FRED) published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve. As a start, explore the data series available on FRED.

Treasury Rates: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/searchresults/?nasw=0&st=Treasury%20Yields&t=usa&ob=sr&od=desc&types=gen;geo. Set/filter Geographies to United States.

Corporate rates using Moody's ratings: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/searchresults/?nasw=0&st=Treasury%20Yields&t=yield%3Bcorporate&ob=sr&od=desc&types=gen

FRED Interface

You can download the data by selecting Download button on the right and selecting Excel for the data. Or you can edit the graph to by selecting

Set the beginning date for data range to 2000-01-01. Next, click on Edit Graph. "Modify Frequency to Monthly. Finally, now click on Download and select and Excel data.

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