Question
Suppose a nationwide screening programme instituted through schools is being considered to uncover child abuse. It is estimated that 2 per cent of all children
Suppose a nationwide screening programme instituted through schools is being considered to uncover child abuse. It is estimated that 2 per cent of all children are subject to abuse. Further, existing screening programmers are able to determine correctly that abuse occurs 92 per cent of the time and that abuse is incorrectly suspected 5 per cent of the time. (a) What is the probability that the results of screening indicating abuse are associated with children who are actually not abused? (b) Based upon every 1,00,000 children screened, how many screenings can be expected to lead to a false accusation of abuse? (c) Based upon your answer to part (a), is it valid to conclude that 73 per cent of the families not abusing children would be falsely accused? Why or why not?
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