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Suppose an office building in central Paris is anticipated to produce an NOI of 8 0 0 Euros per square meter next year. Thereafter, NOI

Suppose an office building in central Paris is anticipated to produce an NOI of 800 Euros per square meter next year. Thereafter, NOI is expected to grow at a rate of 3% per year indefinitely. You can purchase the property at a 5% cap rate. You plan to hold the property for 5 years. You feel pretty confident that rents will indeed grow at 3% annually. The big unknown in your mind is what the terminal cap rate will be. Based on some consultancy reports you've seen, there is a 50% chance that the property will sell at the going-in cap rate, a 20% chance that the property will sell at a 6% cap, and a 30% chance that the property will sell at a 3.5% cap. You buy the property with 100% equity.
What is your IRR (in percent) under the most likely scenario?

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