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Suppose that a monthly time series y, is generated by a model of the form (1 - L12)y: = B. + (1 + LB.)& where

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Suppose that a monthly time series y, is generated by a model of the form (1 - L12)y: = B. + (1 + LB.)& where & is a mean-zero, serially uncorrelated error. a. (4 points) What type of model is this? Be specific. b. (5 points) Suppose Bo = 5 and Bi = 0.9. What is your forecast of Yr+uif &r = 2, yr = 10, YT-11 = 9, and yt-12 = 8? C. (5 points) Consider the same scenario as in part b. What is your forecast of Yr+12? States Accessgate Suppose that a monthly time series y, is generated by a model of the form (1 - L12)y: = B. + (1 + LB.)& where & is a mean-zero, serially uncorrelated error. a. (4 points) What type of model is this? Be specific. b. (5 points) Suppose Bo = 5 and Bi = 0.9. What is your forecast of Yr+uif &r = 2, yr = 10, YT-11 = 9, and yt-12 = 8? C. (5 points) Consider the same scenario as in part b. What is your forecast of Yr+12? States Accessgate

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