Suppose that the federal budget of ECON 1202, a hypothetical economy, exhibited a primary budget surplus equal to 0.6 percent of GDP at the end of 2019 but moved to a deficit of 0.4 percent of GDP at the end of 2020.

Assume some observers want to blame the deficit solely on expansionary fiscal policies implemented in response to Covid-19. However, others argue that the deficit grew because of the decrease in output during the recession that occurred in 2020.

Which side has a valid argument, and why?