Suppose that the Perpetual Help College of Rizal had the following record of its growth of enrollment from 2011 -2020.

Year Enrolment Year Enrolment

2011 5,200 2016 7,000

2012 5,500 2017 8,800

2013 6,000 2018 9,400

2014 6,500 2019 9,600

2015 6,800 2020 10,500

a) Develop a forecast of enrolment beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3-years moving average forecast model.

b) Using weights of .50 for the most recent data, .30 to the second recent data, and .20 to the 3 months old data, develop a forecast beginning 2014 to 2021 using 3 years weighted moving average forecast model.

c) Using exponential smoothing and smoothing constant of .30 and 2011 previous forecast of 5200, develop a forecast of enrolment from 2012 to 2021.

d) Forecast enrollment using Trend line Projection from 2011 to 2021.

e) Evaluate forecast accuracy of each forecast model using MSE . Which model should you

recommend?

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