Suppose the AR(1) model in Exhibit 5 is an accurate representation of our current civilian unemployment data. The unemployment rate for the current month is 3.8% and the prior change was +0.3%. What is the predicted unemployment rate for the next month?

Exhibit 5 gives the regression output of an AR(1) model on first differences in the unemployment rate. Describe how to interpret the DW statistic for this regression. EXHIBIT 5 Estimating an AR(1) Model of Changes in the Civilian Unemployment Rate: Monthly Observations, February 2013 August 2019