Suppose there are two islands. The probability that a young person is born on Island A is 25%, and the probability that a person is born on Island B is 75%. The old generation is evenly distributed across islands. Inflation is random: With equal probability, the fiat money stock is either tripled or it remains constant. The young only observe the fiat money stock at the end of the period. They do however observe the price level in the current period. In fact, after observing the price level, the young on one of the islands are now certain that the government has decided to triple the money supply this period. What else can they infer about their island and how do they react